2023 Oscar Predictions (By MoCo Movie Critic Andrew Italia)

Andrew Italia is an attorney in Rockville, 2001 Quince Orchard High School graduate, and MoCo resident. When he was in college at the University of Maryland, he was the movie critic for The Maryland Diamondback. During his time as the movie critic, he began making Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. His all-time record is 21 out of 24, but he usually falls in the 18-20 range. For the fourth straight year he is providing The MoCoShow with his predictions. Earlier this week, he shared his Top 12 Movies of 2022.

I might have nodded off a little early during last year’s Oscar telecast…What did I miss?

 Key:

Will Win: Bet your first born on it (…but only if you’re at least semi-fond of your second born…)

Alternate: The most likely upset

Should Win: Who wins in Voltaire’s “best of all possible worlds”

Should’ve Been Nominated: Who the Academy snubbed entirely

 

BEST PICTURE:

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022)

Should Win:  Top Gun: Maverick

Should’ve been Nominated: The Woman King

Usually the question is – which film will win?

This year the question is – how many will it win? 

While it was largely shut out by the BAFTAs, the kinetic and candy coated Kung Fu adjacent epic Everything Everywhere All at Once has alchemized into a bulldozing frontrunner the likes of which haven’t been seen since The Return of the King.  Its trophy case is already adorned with a Golden Globe, a BFCA, three SAGs, a PGA, a DGA, an ACE, and a WGA, so it winning the night’s biggest prize is nearly a foregone conclusion (though watch out for All Quiet right on its six…).  Should it take this prize along with two acting awards, it will be the first film to have done so since Million Dollar Baby, and the first ever since the advent of the preferential ballot.

My pie in the sky scenario?  Populist darling (and my personal favorite) Top Gun: Maverick Crashing this race entirely.

Difficult to imagine?

            Sure.

            But so was a 4G inverted dive with a Mig-28.

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Will Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans 

Should Win: Todd Field for Tár

Should’ve been Nominated: Jordan Peele for Nope

Seven-time nominee Spielberg still has a shot, but it’s a long one.  This is the Daniels’ day with little doubt.

 

BEST ACTOR:

Will Win:  Austin Butler in Elvis

Alternate: Brandon Fraser in The Whale

Should Win:  Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Should’ve Been Nominated: Adam Sandler in Hustle

The first of three major horse races come Sunday.  Farrell (the most deserving IMHO, both for this role and for his barnburner performance in The Batman) is the spoiler.  Fraser is the legacy pick with the BFCA and the SAG.  Butler has the Globe, the BAFTA, and the early buzz (since 2000, only two actors with such a pedigree have lost).  Any tie breakers?  Of the last ten gents to walk away with this one, seven portrayed a historical figure.  Add a push to honor the late Lisa Marie Presley, who tragically died in the middle of awards season, and Butler likely takes it by an inch.  Or not.

 

BEST ACTRESS:

Will Win:  Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Cate Blanchett in Tár

Should Win:  Cate Blanchett in Tár

Should’ve Been Nominated: Viola Davis in The Woman King

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?  Blanchett and Yeoh both have the good fortune of delivering the performances of a lifetime, but the bad fortune of doing so during the same year. Blanchett’s masterwork in Tár seemed to have this gift wrapped, and no actress who has won the Globe, BFCA, and BAFTA has lost since 2000.  Then Yeoh took a surprise SAG and now seems poised to kill the prior stat with the savagery of a hot dog fingered ura shuto.  The less said about Andrea Riseborough pulling an Adrien Brody, the better.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should’ve been Nominated: Justin Long in Barbarian OR Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time

Wet the fire and call in the hounds.  This hunt’s over.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Will Win: Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Alternate: Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should’ve Been Nominated: Keke Palmer in Nope

The murkiest crystal ball of the night.  Curtis is Hollywood royalty and caught the SAG (12 of the last 13 winners had one).  Kerry Condon has the BAFTA (9 of the last 13 winners had one).  Bassett has the Globe and BFCA (12 of the last 13 winners had one), but is perhaps sailing into some pretty significant Marvel-made headwinds.  Betting against Black Panther hasn’t been a good business proposition to date though.  Just ask Killmonger.

 

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):

Will Win: Women Talking

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022)

Should Win: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Should’ve been Nominated: Chip n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers

While few have sadly had the opportunity to watch Women Talking (aka “Women are Talking” per Mark Wahlberg…), it claimed the WGA on Sunday, which has accurately called this category in five of the last five years.  Not bad odds, amirite?

 

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL): 

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win: Tár

Should’ve been Nominated: Armageddon Time

The Banshees of Inisherin was the early favorite and could still take gold, but if Everything starts winning…everything (get it?!), then chalk this category up to the frontrunner.

 

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

Alternate: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should’ve been Nominated: Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood

Marcel is positioned for a steal, but Pinocchio likely pulls it off.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022) (Germany)

Alternate: Close (Belgium)

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022) (Germany)

Should’ve been Nominated: RRR (India)

The latest rendition of All Quiet is a grizzled, gory, and groundbreaking fever dream of a foreign language film, and it will rightly claim this statue.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: Navalny

Alternate: Fire of Love

Should Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Should’ve been Nominated: This Place Rules

Another nail biter.  Almost even odds, with a wink and a nod for Navalny.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Alternate: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should’ve been Nominated: Ambulance

James Cameron can’t possible go wrong with an acceptance speech.  …right?

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Alternate: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Black Wakanda

Should Win: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

Should’ve been Nominated: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing

Define irony.  High-tempo Tollywood triumph RRR was one of the few non-franchise delights of last year’s cinema, and deserves a bucketful of nominations (in Picture, International Feature, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects, you name it…).  So I’m less than sanguine that its one and only chance at gold comes in the wrong category.  Should Rihanna upset, she’ll be one of only three artists to have performed the Super Bowl and won an Oscar in the same year.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: Babylon by Justin Hurwitz

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022) by Volker Bertelmann

Should Win: Babylon by Justin Hurwitz

Should’ve been Nominated: The Batman (Michael Giacchino)

Fifty-three.  The number of Whoville Christmases through which the Grinch suffered.  The number of Hail Mary beads in a Catholic Rosary.  The maximum active roster of an NFL Team.  Also, the lifetime nominations to date claimed by nonagenarian John Williams.  While Williams likely isn’t getting his sixth Oscar this weekend, it still makes for one hell of a war story.  Don’t count out Bertlemann either, particularly with the All Quiet-happy Academy.

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022)

Alternate: Elvis

Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022)

Should’ve been Nominated: The Batman OR Top Gun: Maverick

Last year’s winner Greig Fraser, arguably the best Aussie import this side of Fosters, shot the sharpest looking film of the year with The Batman.  Top Gun literally put cameras in spiraling jets.  Alas, the Academy didn’t even dignify either with a nomination.  The ASC winner going on to take the Oscar seven of the last ten years might suggest Elvisfor the win, but I think it’s still All Quiet‘s to lose…

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Will Win: Babylon

Alternate: Elvis

Should Win: Babylon

Should’ve been Nominated: RRR

Is explosive pachyderm diarrhea considered production design?  Asking for a Babylon.

 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:

Will Win: Elvis

Alternate: The Whale

Should Win: The Batman

Should’ve been Nominated: Werewolf by Night

A close race down ballot, Elvis has the narrowest of edges.  As Tom Hanks (the person, not the drink) got OG Covid making it, it would be well earned.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Elvis

Alternate: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should’ve been Nominated: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Sorry, Namor.  Elvis likely takes this too.  

 

BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win: Tár

Should’ve been Nominated: Barbarian

The ACE precursors shined little light here, as both Maverick and Everything each took one (in Drama and Comedy categories respectively).  As this category is oftentimes a bellwether for Best Picture, Everything probably wins 51 of 100 coin tosses.

 

BEST SOUND:

Will Win:  Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022)

Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should’ve Been Nominated: Nope

If Maverick finally scores with anything other than the long suffering Penny Benjamin, it’ll be with this one.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Alternate: Stranger at the Gate

 

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Alternate: My Year of Dicks

 

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):

Will Win: Le Pupille

Alternate: An Irish Goodbye

 

Your Office Pool Approved Shortlist:

 

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor: Austin Butler in Elvis

Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Screenplay (Adapted): Women Talking

Best Screenplay (Original): Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Animated Film: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022) (Germany)

Best Documentary Feature: Navalny

Best Visual Effects:  Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Best Score: Babylon by Justin Hurwitz

Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front (2022)

Best Production Design: Babylon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Best Costume Design: Elvis

Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Short Documentary: The Elephant Whisperers

Best Short Film (Animated): The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Best Short Film (Live Action): Le Pupille