MoCo Oscar Predictions
Andrew Italia is an attorney in Rockville, 2001 Quince Orchard High School graduate, and MoCo resident. When he was in college at the University of Maryland, he was the movie critic for The Maryland Diamondback.
During his time as the movie critic, he began making Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. His all-time record is 21 out of 24, but he usually falls in the 18-20 range.
This year he has provided The MoCoShow with his prediction and we are excited to share.
Key:
Will Win: My official prediction
Alternate: The most likely upset
Should Win: Who would win in Voltaire’s “best of all possible worlds”
Should’ve Been Nominated: Who the Academy snubbed entirely
BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: 1917
Alternate: Parasite
Should Win: Parasite
Should’ve been Nominated: Knives Out
Let’s lawyer the shit out of it.
Jojo Rabbit is getting love from several guilds and its anti-fascist missive is all too timely, but it’s likely too little, too late. Dark horse Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could Crash the party if the Academy wants to give Quentin some love, but so far he’s only scored for his writing.
Parasite is armed with both the SAG ensemble and WGA in its quest to become the frontrunner-killing Moonlight of this race. Yet it lacks acting nominations, a foreign language film has never won this category, and the Academy might believe a Best International Film Oscar to be a big enough consolation prize.
Any doubt that 1917 was the frontrunner was dispelled by its Golden Globe, PGA, DGA, and BAFTA (La La Land is the only applicant with this resume in history to be rejected). Its victory would mark a return to form for the ‘epic Oscar’ that reigned before everyone began streaming films on their phones. However, no film that skipped the Fall film festivals has won since Bush was on the ballot, it was snubbed by the indicative editor’s branch, and its lack of any SAG nominations is foreboding.
So it’s anyone’s game.
Let’s just hope they don’t count the votes in Iowa.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Sam Mendes for 1917
Alternate: Bong Joon Ho for Parasite
Should Win: Sam Mendes for 1917
Should’ve been Nominated: Jordan Peele for Us
While Joon Ho could pull off a commendable upset, Mendes should receive his second Oscar 20 years after his first one for American Beauty. Just without Kevin Spacey this time.
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Alternate: Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Should’ve Been Nominated: Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems
The smart money is on Joker becoming the first character to nab two Oscars for as many actors since Don Vito Corleone pulled off the hat trick.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Renee Zellweger for Judy
Alternate: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story
Should Win: Cynthia Erivo for Harriet
Should’ve Been Nominated: Lupita Nyong’o for Us
Ordinarily at least one of the four acting categories breaks from precursor trends. While the risk-averse should pencil in Zellweger’s name, she is the most vulnerable given an ascendant Johansson. Should Erivo upset, she’ll have her EGOT (…and she has another shot in the Original Song category too).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alternate: Joe Pesci for The Irishman
Should Win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should’ve been Nominated: Zak Gottsagen for The Peanut Butter Falcon OR Alan Alda for Marriage Story
Bet on Brad, and bet big.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Alternate: Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit
Should Win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Should’ve Been Nominated: J. Lo for Hustlers
It’s Dern’s day, and a well deserved one. Next time bring J. Lo.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):
Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
Alternate: Little Women
Should Win: The Two Popes
Should’ve been Nominated: Hustlers
Greta Gerwig did a stunning job revitalizing a century and a half old tome for modern audiences, and this is the Academy’s opportunity to recognize her. However, Taika Waititi won a WGA for making a dark comedy about fascism both funny and feasible. A jump ball, but one Waititi takes.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
Will Win: Parasite
Alternate: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Marriage Story
Should’ve been Nominated: Booksmart
Quentin Tarantino might win what is one of the closest races of the night, but I give Parasite a miniscule advantage…
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:
Will Win: Toy Story 4
Alternate: Klaus
Should Win: Toy Story 4
Should’ve been Nominated: Frozen 2 OR The Lion King
While Klaus or Missing Link could easily win in such a competitive year, look forward to Toy Story joining The Godfather as a franchise with two Oscars on its shelf. “I know it was you Woody, you broke my heart!”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
Will Win: Parasite (South Korea)
Alternate: Pain and Glory (Spain)
Should Win: Parasite (South Korea)
Should’ve been Nominated: Atlantics (France)
It’s Parasite’s without breaking a sweat.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: American Factory
Alternate: Honeyland
Should Win: American Factory
Should’ve been Nominated: Wrestle
I’m old enough to remember when US Presidents were elected by a majority of Americans and didn’t need ten to fifteen tries to flush a toilet. The last such president’s first production company created a consciousness raising exploration of the pitfalls of globalization and the problems facing Midwest manufacturing alike. It’s the likeliest winner here, though Honeyland and For Sama are nipping at its heels.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: 1917
Alternate: The Lion King
Should Win: The Lion King
Should’ve been Nominated: Gemini Man
While The Lion King could pull a Jungle Book, this one probably will fall into 1917’s war chest.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Alternate: “Into the Unknown” from Frozen 2
Should Win: “Into the Unknown” from Frozen 2
Should’ve been Nominated: “Spirit” from The Lion King OR “Invisible” from Klaus
No one ever became rich by betting against Elton. PS Who in the literal fuck didn’t invite Beyoncé to the party?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Joker by Hildur Guonadottir
Alternate: 1917 by Thomas Newman
Should Win: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Story by John Williams
Should’ve been Nominated: Dark Phoenix by Hans Zimmer OR How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World by John Powell & Jonsi
Guonadottir’s unnerving score for Joker is certainly impressive, but in a year with superior sounds by Newman (nominated 14 times without a win) and Williams (nominated 52 times; more than anyone alive, though still a few short of Walt Disney’s all time record), it pales in comparison. Get it? Joker? Pale? It’s funny because Joker’s pale…right?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: 1917
Alternate: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: 1917
Should’ve been Nominated: Midsommar OR Ad Astra
Will Roger Deakins win his second Oscar? Do bears do it in the woods? Is Ted Cruz creepy? All signs point to yes.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alternate: 1917
Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should’ve been Nominated: Knives Out
A 1917 tsunami could wash up here, but it’s Once Upon a Time’s to lose.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: Bombshell
Alternate: Joker
Should Win: Bombshell
Should’ve been Nominated: Midsommar
Given Vice’s victory last year, Charlize’s transfiguration into Megyn Kelly will likely be the Academy’s jam.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Little Women
Alternate: Jojo Rabbit
Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should’ve been Nominated: Knives Out
The guild went full Jojo, but the AARP abundant Academy is nothing if a sucker for a good period piece.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Parasite
Alternate: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: Parasite
Should’ve been Nominated: The Perfection
Another nail biter where Parasite’s ACE gives it the edge.
BEST SOUND MIXING:
Will Win: 1917
Alternate: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should’ve Been Nominated: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Sorting the sound awards is a Sisyphean task, but in a category traditionally dominated by war films, 1917 is the safest gamble. Though look no further than the fury of Fords and Ferraris for the steal, particularly in the editing category.
BEST SOUND EDITING:
Will Win: Ford v Ferrari
Alternate: 1917
Should Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should’ve Been Nominated: John Wick: Chapter 3: Parabellum
See supra. Where’s Wick?
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
Alternate: St. Louis Superman
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Will Win: Hair Love
Alternate: Kitbull
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
Will Win: Brotherhood
Alternate: The Neighbors’ Window
The Office Pool Approved Shortlist:
Best Picture: 1917
Best Director: Sam Mendes for 1917
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger for Judy
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Best Screenplay (Adapted): Jojo Rabbit
Best Screenplay (Original): Parasite
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 4
Best Foreign Film: Parasite (South Korea)
Best Documentary Feature: American Factory
Best Visual Effects: 1917
Best Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Best Score: Joker by Hildur Guonadottir
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Film Editing: Parasite
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Short Documentary: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
Best Short Film (Animated): Hair Love
Best Short Film (Live Action): Brotherhood
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