Maryland’s Fall Foliage Forecast 2023

Fall officially kicks off Saturday, September 23, 2023—the same day as the autumn equinox—in the Northern Hemisphere. Many of us in Maryland are looking forward to leaving behind the days of record-breaking heat and welcoming clear, blue skies, cooler evenings and autumnal tree canopies. The Maryland Department of Natural Resources once again has started presenting its weekly Fall Foliage Report. What can we expect from fall foliage this year and when can leaf peepers catch a glimpse of fall’s best colors? Check it out below, courtesy of the Maryland Department of Natural Resources:

What the Science Says: For years, scientists have worked to understand the changes that occur in trees and shrubs during autumn, according to the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, but they can agree that three primary factors influence autumn leaf color: leaf pigments, length of night, and weather.

Maryland Department of Natural Resources State Forest Manager Melissa Nash explains. “During the warmer summer months, leaves are green due to the chlorophyll pigment. Along with that green pigment are hidden yellow to orange tones called xanthophyll and carotenes (these are the same type of pigments that give carrots their orange color).” But what causes the transition from green to shades of orange, yellow and red? Nash points to the length of daylight and cooling temperatures characteristic of fall months.

“As fall approaches, changes in the length of daylight and decreasing temperatures cause the leaves to stop their food making process of photosynthesis. When this happens, the chlorophyll breaks down and the green color begins to disappear, revealing yellows and oranges. Around this same time, some trees also produce pigments called anthocyanins which cause red to purplish tones.”

So when can we expect to see the leaves start to change in Maryland? The Department of Natural Resources’ foresters offer their expert predictions, beginning with the state’s westernmost counties:

Western Region

Aaron Cook, State Forester, Indian Springs Wildlife Management Area

“The early leaf out and long summer dry weather will negatively impact fall foliage in western Maryland, particularly Frederick and Washington counties. Here in western Washington County the Fairview Mountain ridge is displaying some color, but unfortunately it is the result of leaf drop from drought stressed trees (as pictured in the below photos from Indian Springs Wildlife Management Area, showing “fall” color on the ridge, early leaf change of black walnut, flowering plum, and linden).  In Frederick county, most of the black gum and sweet birch have already lost their leaves due to drought stress; they did change color, but leaf drop immediately followed.  A well timed tropical storm could help offset drought conditions, but will likely not reverse the  impacts of drought stress to fall color from an entire growing season of drought conditions.  Time will tell though, as the oak dominated ridges are normally hitting peak in the latter half of October.”

Trees in Western Maryland, leaves are already starting to turn.

Melissa Nash, State Forest Manager, Mt. Nebo Wildlife Management Area

“If we don’t get some rain, I don’t think it’s going to be a spectacular year like we had last year. Hot and dry just doesn’t bode well for fall color. We are already starting to see a few subtle hints in Garrett County.”

Photo of leaves with a few changing from green to red.

Some reds are starting to show in far Western Maryland. This photo was taken last week at New Germany State Park.

Central Region

Melissa Carson, State Park Ranger Lead, Patapsco Valley State Park

“The canopy throughout Patapsco Valley State Park is starting to look a little more bare than it normally would this time of year due to the heat and lack of rain this summer. With that said, we still have quite a few indications that the beautiful Autumn foliage has not given up on us!”

Signs of fall peeking through the green at Patapsco Valley State Park.

Signs of fall peeking through the green at Patapsco Valley State Park.

Northeastern Region

Shin Ae D. Gonzalez, Seasonal Park Ranger, Fair Hill Natural Resources Management Area/ Bohemia River State Park 

“Fair Hill Natural Resources Management Area is located in an area which was affected by drought earlier in the summer. Trees susceptible to drought like black walnut are showing telltale signs, with leaves beginning to fade to yellow. The leaves of tulip poplars are turning yellow with crisp brown edges; their leaves have been dropping for some time. Due to the conditions described and the warm weather, we predict a below-average display of autumnal foliage in the area.”

Black Walnut at Fair Hill Natural Resources Management Area.

More 2023 Fall Foliage Predictions

  • Our friends at The Farmer’s Almanac predict that much of New England will be at or near peak fall color by October 11; a little further south in the Blue Ridge Mountains, it looks like mid-October is our best bet for peak fall color.
  • According to the Washington Post, Maryland should see peak colors by mid-October with an ultimate peak arriving around Oct. 23. The northern half of Virginia should be past peak by then.


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