(First Pencil Prediction of the Season) Flood Watch That Could Turn To Snow Monday Morning

Images courtesy of the National Weather Service

All of Montgomery County and some surrounding areas are now under a Flood Watch today (Sunday, December 10th) from 1pm through late tonight. Temperatures will dip, making it possible that the storm ends with snow Monday morning.

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), “excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Two to three inches of rain are mostly likely Sunday through tonight with the heaviest rain falling during the afternoon and evening. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas.”

There could be a period of time in the early morning hours that snow begins to fall. According to some models, it could even be heavy at times, but temperatures will likely remain above freezing and the ground will be even warmer, so any snow that does fall will probably not stick.

The main concern from the possibility of snow would be visibility during the heavy snow times, if it does occur. FOX5’s Mike Thomas says, “The model is showing a late switch over to some mix and snow, but just for a couple hours before sunrise, when our region starts to dry out. Even with this quick burst around the front part of the early commute Monday (like 3-4am) it’s still not putting much on the ground. Surface temps above freezing the whole event, so need fall rate to exceed melt rate for it to stick. Even if it happens, likely would melt fast!”

Pencil Prediction for Monday, December 11th: 1 Pencil

The possibility of a well-timed burst of snow always warrants a “pencil prediction”, I just don’t think this one will amount to much due to how warm the ground will be and the temps being above freezing. Below you’ll see the expected event total, which is less than an inch for most of MoCo (1-2 in Damascus), a high end amount of about 2 inches (10% chance) and a low end amount of absolutely no snow (also about 10% chance).

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