NBC4 meteorologist Doug Kammerer says confidence remains low as weather models continue to show vastly different outcomes for a potential winter storm expected Sunday. In a Wednesday night social media post, Kammerer highlighted the sharp contrast between the GFS and European models, which are painting very different snowfall scenarios for Maryland.
The GFS model showed a much stronger storm tracking closer to the coast, with projections of one to two feet of snow in parts of Maryland. This is unlikely to happen. The European model, on the other hand, keeps the system weaker and farther offshore, resulting in a much lighter snowfall total in the 2 to 5 inch range. Kammerer noted that the unusual part of the forecast is not wild model swings, but that both models have remained fairly consistent in their opposing solutions several days out.
Kammerer added that several other models have recently shifted farther offshore as well, which aligns more closely with the European model. Based on that trend and recent performance this winter, he said he currently favors the European solution, noting that the GFS has struggled with accuracy this season.
While some snow locally on Sunday, he and most other local meteorologists do not believe the region is facing a major, high impact winter storm at this time. The situation remains fluid and it remains worth watching the storm closely as new data comes in over the next few days.
