Andrew Italia is a Quince Orchard High School graduate and MoCo resident. When he was in college at the University of Maryland, he was the movie critic for The Maryland Diamondback. During his time as the movie critic, he began making Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. His all-time record is 21 out of 24, but he usually falls in the 18-20 range. We recently shared his Top 12 Movies list for 2025. For more movies on Twitter/X, see @italia_budo
A spritely ninety-eight years old this year, the Academy Awards is rapidly approaching its big ‘One MF Oh Oh’ benchmark. With monoculture crashing and the future of filmgoing itself in question (…RIP Warner Bros), an awards show skewing older needs to shake up its game to keep getting the gooseflesh. Should it bring on brand new awards (Best Debut? Best Comedic Performance?) Banish the short films to another ceremony outside of prime time? Finally bring on John Mulaney as a host tailor made for prime time? Or…YouTube? That’s right, the sun will soon set on Oscars’ 50 years at ABC. Beginning 2029, they’re putting the show on YouTube and placing prime time out to pasture entirely. To quote one Pepper Brooks – “it’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for’em.” Until then, enjoy the show... while you still can.
Key:
Will Win: Bet your first born on it (…but only if you’re at least semi-fond of your second born…)
Alternate: The most likely upset
Should Win: Who wins in Voltaire’s “best of all possible worlds”
Should’ve Been Nominated: Who the Academy snubbed entirely
BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Should’ve been Nominated: Warfare
This category seemed clinched. Perennial favorite One Battle After Another was the indisputable behemoth big dogging all others. It ascended to the rarefied ranks of Schindler’s List, L.A. Confidential, and The Social Network by sweeping the NYFCC, LAFCA, NBR, and NSFC, and also brought home the Golden Globe, BFCA, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, ASC, and WGA (Comedy) to boot. Missing only an Actor (f/k/a SAG) Ensemble, it enters the ring as the most decorated BP contender in modern history, an unstoppable force you’d be de lu lu to bet against.
…so what happens when it meets an immovable object? Sinners, also a grand slam of a major motion picture, is the most nominated film of all time with sixteen actual ass nominations, two more than prior record holders Titanic(the movie, not the boat), La La Land, and All About Eve. If you relish that statistic, here’s another – Sinners has won an ACE (Drama), Actor Ensemble, and WGA (Drama), and no nominated film with said precursors has ever lost a Best Picture Oscar.
So while the smart money still says One Battle, don’t be surprised if Sinners raises its hand when the smoke clears on this suddenly too-close-to-call race. After all, there’s no such thing as an unsinkable ship. Just ask the Titanic (the boat, not the movie).
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Alternate: Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Should’ve been Nominated: Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident
PTA won the DGA, which predicted this winner ten of the last eleven times, and is all but certain to repeat here.
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan in Sinners
Alternate: Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Should Win: Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent
Should’ve Been Nominated: Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine
After a near miss last year for embodying Bob Dylan, this initially appeared to be Timmy C’s year to become the second youngest best Actor winner in history. However, Jordan’s groundbreaking double duty playing twins Smoke and Stack (…get it?) earned him a BAFTA, an Actor Award, and late breaking momentum. Conventional wisdom still suggests Tim, but Mike might just make it.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Alternate: Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Should Win: Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Should’ve Been Nominated: Sophie Thatcher in Companion
The surest bet of the night for those suffering from acute risk aversion.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Sean Penn in One Battle After Another
Alternate: Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value
Should Win: Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another
Should’ve been Nominated: Ralph Fiennes in 28 Years Later
The rare category that could plausibly go all five ways. So let’s lawyer the shit out of it. Delroy Lindo has been bringing bravura performances since Clockers, was famously snubbed for Da 5 Bloods, and could find himself awarded come Sunday. Anyone who drank Saltburn‘s bath water might not be surprised to see Elordi take it either. The last time that the BFCA, Golden Globe, and BAFTA differed here was for 2005, with Oscar following the Globe (George Clooney for Syriana). Which points to a Skarsgard win, making this only the third non-English language win here after Benicio Del Toro’s in Traffic and De Niro’s in The Godfather: Part II. Speaking of Del Toro, his performance was the early critical darling that could boomerang back to the podium. However, by a mere preponderance of the evidence I’m going with late breaker Sean Penn, given the recency bias of his BAFTA and Actor Award wins, along with the fact that winners here often play idiosyncratic villains (…i.e. Anton Chigurh, Henry Hill, Hans Landa, and the Joker himself).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Amy Madigan in Weapons
Alternate: Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another
Should Win: Amy Madigan in Weapons
Should’ve Been Nominated: Oona Chaplin in Avatar: Fire and Ash
Another close call. Taylor was the early Globe-winning favorite who may still prevail. While Madigan would be the first to win for a film with a single nomination since Julianne Moore in 2015, her recent Actor Award gives her a 23 out of 31 chance to match with Oscar. Anyone who has seen Weapons knows that it’s probably not wise to bet against her.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Hamnet
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Should’ve been Nominated: Superman OR The Naked Gun (2025)
Might Hamnet win? Sure. In the same way the Terps “might” still make March Madness and I “might” launch a second career as a Soprano in the Opera.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
Will Win: Sinners
Alternate: It Was Just an Accident
Should Win: Sinners
Should’ve been Nominated: Friendship
Ryan Coogler is one of the most talented auteurs of our generation. While he won’t win his directing Oscar quite yet, he will at least take the stage this Sunday for his screenplay.
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:
Will Win: K-Pop Demon Hunters
Alternate: Zootopia 2
Should Win: Zootopia 2
Should’ve been Nominated: The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie
Anyone who took their kids trick-or-treating last Fall and saw the assortment of (demon hunting coded…) costumes already knows this one.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
Will Win: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Alternate: The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident (France)
Should’ve been Nominated: No Other Choice (South Korea)
It’s likely Sentimental Value‘s to lose, but The Secret Agent is sure as shit gunning for its six.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Alternate: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should’ve been Nominated: In Waves and War
Unless you have $2.8 billion to spare like Paramount, it’s ordinarily best not to bid against Netflix.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should’ve been Nominated: Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
It’s almost heresy for this category not to go the way of Big Jim and his assorted Blue People. PS What in the actual flannel-wearing fuck does Tom Cruise have to do to get nominated?
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters
Alternate: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Should Win: “Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters
Should’ve been Nominated: “Lose My Mind” from F1: The Movie
Another year brings another crop of rather bizarre nominations, of which “Golden” will make child’s play.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Sinners by Ludwig Goransson
Alternate: One Battle After Another by Jonny Greenwood
Should Win: Sinners by Ludwig Goransson
Should’ve been Nominated: Tron: Ares by Nine Inch Nails
With his third Oscar imminent, Goransson is quickly becoming the millennial answer to past magna-maestros Williams and Zimmer.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: Train Dreams
Should’ve been Nominated: Presence
Though precursors have largely favored One Battle, Autumn Durald Arkapaw could still potentially become the first woman of color to win this prize for her phenomenal work in Sinners.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will Win: Frankenstein (2025)
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should’ve been Nominated: The Fantastic Four: First Steps
While a Sinners sweep could deliver this one too, Guillermo Del Toro’s little monster movie that could is the frontrunner.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: Frankenstein (2025)
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: The Smashing Machine
Should’ve been Nominated: 28 Years Later
See my groundbreaking “Production Design” analysis supra.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Frankenstein (2025)
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: Sinners
Should’ve been Nominated: The Secret Agent
See my groundbreaking “Production Design” analysis supra.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: F1: The Movie
Should’ve been Nominated: Weapons
Likely another battle between the two big kahunas, seeing as the ACE was a split result too. However, given Ford v. Ferrari‘s prior win, don’t count F1 out…
BEST SOUND:
Will Win: F1: The Movie
Alternate: Sinners
Should Win: F1: The Movie
Should’ve Been Nominated: Warfare
Sinners surprised with its MPSE award this past weekend, but the CAS-winning team behind Top Gun: Maverick will likely be honored again.
BEST CASTING:
Will Win: Sinners
Alternate: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should’ve Been Nominated: A House of Dynamite
Given that it’s the inaugural run for this award, your guess is as good as mine. But my guess is Sinners.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Alternate: Armed Only With a Camera
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Will Win: Butterfly
Alternate: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Alternate: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Your Quick and Dirty Shortlist:
Best Picture: One Battle After Another
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan in Sinners
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn in One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan in Weapons
Best Screenplay (Adapted): One Battle After Another
Best Screenplay (Original): Sinners
Best Animated Film: K-Pop Demon Hunters
Best International Film: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Song: “Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters
Best Score: Sinners by Ludwig Goransson
Best Cinematography: One Battle After Another
Best Production Design: Frankenstein (2025)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein (2025)
Best Costume Design: Frankenstein (2025)
Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another
Best Sound: F1: The Movie
Best Casting: Sinners
Best Short Documentary: All the Empty Rooms
Best Short Film (Animated): Butterfly
Best Short Film (Live Action): A Friend of Dorothy
