FOX5 meteorologist Mike Thomas is offering an early look at the 2026-2027 winter, suggesting the region could see an overall mild-to-warm season with fewer snow events, but an elevated risk of a major snowstorm if conditions align.
The preview was included in Thomas’ Fall Weather Outlook. FOX5’s full winter outlook will be released later this fall. According to Thomas, the team’s expectations have not changed significantly since an earlier summer discussion about a forecast “Super El Niño.” The preliminary outlook calls for occasional strong cold shots, but temperatures averaging above normal across the winter.
Thomas also anticipates a wet winter with increased chances for rain and fewer snow events, particularly smaller snowfalls. However, the additional moisture could create an opportunity for a significant snowfall if cold air arrives at the same time as a storm moving in from the south. Thomas pointed to January 2016 as an example of that timing.
“So while overall snow potential for this winter is lower…the blizzard risk is greater than a typical winter,” Thomas said, describing it as a “lower floor, but higher ceiling type winter.”The most likely window for that potential, according to Thomas, would be mid-to-late January through February.
For Montgomery County residents, the early preview suggests a winter that could offer fewer opportunities for snow overall while still leaving the possibility of a major storm. It is a preliminary seasonal outlook, rather than a prediction that a blizzard will occur.
As we’ve covered in recent weeks, The Farmers’ Almanac places much of the Mid-Atlantic in a zone labeled “coastal storms, snow, sleet, and mix,” while The Old Farmer’s Almanac places the Washington region within a “cold, snowy” area on its national map. Despite their similar names, the publications are separate, and their outlooks offer different expectations for the season. We now wait a couple months for official winter outlooks.
