Capital Weather (formerly Capital Weather Gang) has released its outlook for the upcoming winter publicly, calling for a warmer and wetter-than-normal season across the Washington region, but with below-average snowfall overall. This is the second major outlook released after ABC7’s last week.
For Montgomery County, Capital Weather is forecasting 8 to 16 inches of snow for the season (though their map shows 7-15 inches). The same range is predicted for Fairfax and Loudoun counties. Closer to Washington, D.C., predicted totals are lower, with 5 to 10 inches expected in the District, Alexandria, Arlington County, and Prince George’s County. Capital Weather is forecasting 5 to 8 inches at Reagan National Airport, 10 to 14 inches at Dulles International Airport, and 8 to 12 inches at BWI Marshall Airport.
The outlook is heavily influenced by what Capital Weather describes as an exceptionally strong El Niño. While that pattern could produce an active storm track and above-normal precipitation, forecasters expect temperatures to average roughly 3 degrees above normal for the winter. Rain and melted snow combined are projected to reach 125 to 150 percent of normal.
Despite the expectation for below-normal snowfall, Capital Weather believes the potential for a major snowstorm is higher than usual. A brief period of Arctic air arriving at the same time as a moisture-rich storm could produce significant snowfall, even during an otherwise mild winter. Forecasters pointed to the winter of 2015-2016 as an example of a relatively mild season that was defined by one major snowstorm.
Last year, Capital Weather Gang called for 8-18 inches for much of the immediate area and was very accurate with its outlook. Locally, areas like Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring ended up in the 11-15 inch range while areas like Gaithersburg, Germantown, and Damascus ended up getting between 12-18 inches.This year’s winter outlook can be seen in full here.
We previously looked at WJLA/ABC7’s winter outlook, which called for 10 to 20 inches of snow in the immediate D.C. area. Winter outlooks from the region’s other major television networks are expected to be released in the coming weeks, and we’ll continue to provide updates as they become available.
