The second round of the MPSSAA playoffs brings some intriguing matchups, including a pair of rematches, an inter-county showdown, and several teams looking to prove they belong among the state contenders. There are also a few familiar faces with little interest in letting the postseason get any more interesting than necessary
Sherwood gets a significant test from Prince George’s County, Churchill and Seneca Valley renew acquaintances, and Bethesda-Chevy Chase gets another shot at Paint Branch. Meanwhile, Quince Orchard remains on a collision course with another state championship. Here’s a look at the second-round MCPS matchups and predictions:
Thursday, November 12
Potomac (6-4) at Sherwood (8-1): This is an unusually good inter-county matchup for the second round, and it should be a physical contest. Potomac has a collection of capable athletes, but the centerpiece is senior Damarion Baxter, a legitimate do-everything threat who can run, catch, return kicks, and even throw. He piled up 250 all-purpose yards against Kennedy last week.
That presents an interesting challenge for Sherwood. The Warriors know what an explosive, versatile player can do after Damascus’ MJ Sullivan gave them fits three weeks ago. Baxter is capable of creating similar problems, and Potomac has other playmakers who cannot be overlooked.
Still, the Wolverines have not consistently put up big offensive numbers. If Sherwood can establish itself against the run and force Potomac into obvious passing situations, the advantage swings considerably toward the Warriors. Their defense should be capable of creating a turnover or two.
The bigger question is which Sherwood offense shows up. The Warriors followed an impressive comeback against Damascus with a comfortable win over Richard Montgomery, but consistency has been elusive all season. The talent is there. The question is whether the offense can put together two consecutive convincing performances when it matters most. Prediction: Sherwood 28, Potomac 13
Blake (5-5) at Wheaton (7-2): Wheaton has quietly made progress under head coach Jermaine Howell, and the Knights deserve credit for building some continuity over the past two seasons. They have handled the weaker opponents on their schedule, and the program is clearly moving in the right direction.
But there is a difference between beating teams you’re supposed to beat and proving you can compete with the better programs in the county. The schedule has not exactly been a gauntlet, and the loss to Bethesda-Chevy Chase exposed some of the limitations that remain.
Blake presents another difficult challenge. The Bengals have a defense capable of making life miserable for the Wheaton offense, and they have faced a considerably tougher road to this point. Wheaton has made progress, but this is where that progress gets measured. The Knights are not quite ready for this level of competition. Prediction: Blake 35, Wheaton 14
Friday, November 13
Seneca Valley (7-3) at Churchill (9-1): The rematch of a Week 7 thriller should be one of the better games of the weekend. Churchill escaped with a 14-13 victory after Seneca Valley drove for a late touchdown in the final 45 seconds, only to come up short on the two-point conversion.
The Screaming Eagles have plenty of motivation, and they have the athletes to make Churchill uncomfortable. Khamarion Imes is arguably the best overall player in this matchup, and Seneca Valley will need to get him and its other playmakers the ball in space. Quarterback Kenny Lennon also needs to take advantage of opportunities downfield.
The problem is that Churchill is particularly well-equipped to take those opportunities away. The Bulldogs swarm to the football, tackle exceptionally well in space, and bring enough pressure up front to keep opposing quarterbacks from waiting around for deep routes to develop.
That defensive identity travels well in November. Seneca Valley might break off a few explosive plays, but sustaining drives against this defense is another matter. Churchill has the more dependable formula, and the Bulldogs should be able to grind out another postseason win. Prediction: Churchill 28, Seneca Valley 14
Clarksburg (6-4) at Quince Orchard (10-0): Clarksburg deserves credit for knocking off Northwest and earning a trip to the second round. The Coyotes delivered one of the biggest results of the opening round, but the reward is a trip to the CougarDome to face the undefeated two-time defending state champions.
There is a difference between pulling off an upset and taking down Quince Orchard. The Cougars have been operating at another level all season, and Clarksburg is unlikely to have the personnel to keep this competitive for four quarters. Enjoy the playoff run, Coyotes. The defending champs are not in a charitable mood. Prediction: Quince Orchard 42, Clarksburg 0
Paint Branch (6-4) at Bethesda-Chevy Chase (7-2): The regular-season meeting between these teams was one of the better finishes in the county, with both squads finding the end zone in the final two minutes. Paint Branch ultimately prevailed 15-8 after Alijah Bah delivered yet another clutch performance with a long touchdown reception.
Expect another physical, low-scoring affair. BCC wants to avenge its only regional loss, while Paint Branch is looking to reassert itself after a late-season slide knocked the Panthers off their stride.
Both teams would prefer to establish the run, but the matchup could hinge on which offense finds another dimension. If Bah cannot get going, Paint Branch will need to rely more heavily on its passing game. BCC, meanwhile, has seen quarterback Jack Conley become increasingly comfortable directing the Barons’ option attack. His ability to keep defenses honest with his own running threat gives BCC an advantage it did not necessarily have earlier in the season.
The first meeting was decided by a single possession, and there is little reason to expect a blowout this time. But BCC has been playing some of its better football down the stretch, and the Barons have the offensive balance to get revenge. Prediction: Bethesda-Chevy Chase 28, Paint Branch 21
Damascus (6-3) at Linganore (8-1): Damascus has won the last six meetings in this series, but history may not be much help this time. The teams have only met twice in the last decade, and the previous matchups came when Damascus held a decisive talent advantage. That balance has shifted.
Linganore is the more complete team entering this matchup. Sophomore running back Kai Sawi provides a reliable foundation on the ground, while veteran quarterback David Doy gives the Lancers the versatility to attack defenses in multiple ways. Damascus will have to account for considerably more than one player.
Of course, there is one name that will dominate the defensive game plan: MJ Sullivan. His availability is a major question after his injury, and Damascus desperately needs him healthy. Sullivan showed what he can do against Sherwood, and if he returns, the Hornets have a legitimate weapon capable of changing the complexion of this game.
But Linganore is strong in the trenches, and that is where this matchup could get away from Damascus. Even with Sullivan available, the Hornets will have a difficult time keeping pace with the Lancers offense. Linganore has too many ways to move the football and should eventually wear down the Damascus defense. Prediction: Linganore 35, Damascus 14
Whitman (7-3) at Oxon Hill (7-3): Whitman has put together a strong season, but the Vikings are running into a different level of competition. Recent games against Paint Branch and BCC exposed some of the limitations that have followed this team throughout the year, particularly against quality opponents.
Oxon Hill is among the better teams in Prince George’s County and arguably a top-four program in the county. This is a substantial step up in competition for Whitman, and the Clippers have the athletes to make that difference apparent early. The Vikings have had a nice season, but the postseason road ends here. Oxon Hill should control this game from the opening kickoff. Prediction: Oxon Hill 35, Whitman 7
