A new seasonal forecast suggests the East Coast could experience more than twice its normal number of strong storms this winter, with portions of Montgomery County and surrounding areas also included in a region where weather models indicate the potential for above-average snowfall.
Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll shared projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which anticipates 19 strong East Coast storms this winter compared to a seasonal average of nine. “This El Niño winter may feature more than twice the normal amount of strong East Coast storms, with 19 forecast compared to a normal of 9 by ECMWF,” Noll wrote. “That’s going to leave a mark, with more frequent risks for coastal and freshwater flooding, strong winds and inland snow.”
According to Noll, storm activity could increase significantly around the beginning of the new year, with several periods standing out for potentially intense weather systems.“Late December, early-to-mid January and mid-to-late February are periods to watch,” he wrote.
The ECMWF seasonal forecast also projects that El Niño will peak in the central Pacific around the new year and persist into June. El Niño influences atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, potentially affecting winter precipitation patterns across the United States.
Noll also shared a snowfall outlook highlighting areas where weather models show agreement on above-average snowfall during the months ahead. Those regions include the Mountain West, Plains, Appalachians, portions of the South, and the interior Mid-Atlantic.
The map includes approximately half of Montgomery County, along with Frederick County, Washington County, and much of Northern Virginia, within the area showing potential for above-average snowfall.
The projections do not necessarily mean that every storm will bring snow to Montgomery County or that the region will experience significant accumulation. Strong East Coast storms can produce rain, snow, mixed precipitation, or combinations of all three depending on temperatures and storm tracks.
While the seasonal forecasts provide an early indication of potential weather patterns, the timing, intensity, and precipitation type of individual storms will become clearer as winter approaches.
