A major winter storm is increasingly likely to impact the Mid-Atlantic and much of the eastern United States this weekend, with heavy snow and dangerous ice possible from Saturday into Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.
Graphics released by the Weather Prediction Center highlight a broad swath of at least moderate winter storm impacts stretching from the Southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic (including Maryland and Virginia) and into the Northeast. The highest-impact corridor includes areas where significant snowfall is possible, while regions farther south face an elevated risk of sleet and freezing rain.
Forecasters say confidence is high that a significant winter storm will occur, but confidence is lower when it comes to the exact placement of snow versus ice, especially south and east of the primary snow band.
The National Weather Service notes that key ingredients are coming together for a widespread and impactful winter storm across the region this weekend. Snow may begin as early as Saturday morning in parts of west-central Virginia, then slowly spread east and northeast through the day.
Snow is expected to continue Saturday night into Sunday morning before potentially mixing with sleet and freezing rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday night for some locations. Forecast models continue to show some variability, but recent trends have shifted higher precipitation totals toward central Virginia and surrounding areas.
Ensemble guidance strongly supports the potential for six inches or more of snow across a large portion of the region. Forecasters caution that standard 10:1 snow ratios may underestimate totals, as the Arctic air mass in place could support higher ratios and fluffier snow, leading to greater accumulations.
While some uncertainty remains in storm track, timing, and precipitation type transitions, forecasters emphasize that plain rain is highly unlikely. Very cold air locked in near the surface, supported by strong Arctic high pressure to the north, means precipitation will fall as snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Any of these outcomes could produce significant and highly disruptive impacts, including hazardous travel and power outages.
