The Winter Weather Advisory was issued earlier this morning for NW MoCo starting 6am Saturday until 3pm. We suspect that this will cover all of MoCo soon.
Model outputs overnight have shown an increase in potential snowfall. Model outputs are not forecasts, and a blend of several different model outputs are often used by meteorologists to create a forecast.
Below you’ll see “Kuchera” rates. Kuchera ratio involves taking the temperature in the lower half of the atmosphere and using that to determine the liquid/snow ratio, rather than using a more general 10:1 rate.
Below you’ll see the snow maps from the GFS, Euro, NAM, and HRRR (by Pivotal Weather).
These are not forecasts, but if this trend continues, we would not be surprised to see maps from the National Weather Service with higher projected totals.
Another thing to consider is that we don’t usually do “well” when it comes to changing from rain to snow. A lot of times models will show temperatures getting colder earlier than they actually do. We’ll see how this one does.
Below is the most recent projection from the National Weather Service, showing a widespread 2-3”:
Currently there is about a 30-40% chance of us getting more than 4 inches.
