Fox 5 has released its 2022-2023 Winter Weather Outlook forecast and they’re expecting “similar levels of snowfall to last winter, perhaps a little more in the immediate DC area with 9-18” of snow” without any blizzards anticipated and increased snow risks in the second half of the winter, according to meteorologist Mike Thomas.
The outlook discusses a La Niña weather pattern that we are currently in the midst of, as we have been for the last two winters (13.2” last year and 5.4” the year before). La Niñas usually lead to warmer weather for our area with just one La Niña winter producing with none bringing more than average snowfall since the year 2000.
Average snowfall for DC is 13.8” and last winter brought 13.2”, with more than half of it falling during a January 3rd storm that brought 6-8” to many areas (6.9” to DC). The last above average snowfall came in 2018-2019, when DC had 16.9” of snow. “I believe the potential will be there for a little more snow compared to last winter given that La Niña is forecast to fade as we get deeper into winter.” writes Thomas.
The Farmers’ Almanac also released its 2022-2023 extended winter outlook earlier this fall. MoCo and almost all of Maryland seem to fall under the “Significant Shivers, Slushy, Icy, Snowy” category. Just to our south and west is the “Unreasonably Cold, Snowy” category, which means that we may have a good amount of winter precipitation for the first time in a few years, according to their forecast.
We asked our resident snow forecaster, MoCoSnow, about Fox 5’s outlook. “Not as conservative as I would’ve expected for another La Niña pattern, but Mike Thomas added that the pattern could change later in the winter, so February will be very interesting to watch this year” he said. Fox 5’s Winter Weather Outlook can be seen here.