Fox 5 has released its 2023-2024 Winter Weather Outlook forecast and they’re expecting “more snow than an average winter, but big winter events may not arrive until the new year.” The backloaded winter could come with a warm December that brings more rain storms than snow storms, but the chance for 1-3 storms at the 5″+ level later in the winter. The outlook states that we have an “above average chance for a blizzard-level storm.”
The outlook discusses a strong El Niño weather pattern (typically wetter and warmer) that Thomas described as “feast or famine” for our area. Out of eight previous strong El Niño winters, four of them have brought us well-above average snowfall (average snowfall for DC is 13.8″), one has been at about average (13.1″), and three have been well-below average (one at 6.6″ and two with almost no snow at all- .1″ in 72-73 and 97-98). Since 1950, El Niños have brought almost twice as much snow in average than La Niñas have (18.5 inches to 9.5 inches).
Meteorologist Tucker Barnes said “maybe we see fewer snow events, but when we do, they’re something to watch.” Almost all of Montgomery County is in the 12″-20″ range and is joined by surrounding DC, Howard County, Prince George’s County, and Fairfax County. Frederick County and half of Loudoun make it into the 18″-28″ range.
Last year, DC only got .4″ of snow and the FOX 5 outlook had most of the region in the 9″-18″ zone. While winter weather underperformed last year and the Outlook was a bit off, the team at FOX 5 is usually fairly accurate with its outlook. The full outlook from FOX 5 can be seen here. Featured photo courtesy of FOX 5.
