Oscar Predictions 2021
By Andrew Italia
Andrew Italia is an attorney in Rockville, 2001 Quince Orchard High School graduate, and MoCo resident. When he was in college at the University of Maryland, he was the movie critic for The Maryland Diamondback.
During his time as the movie critic, he began making Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. His all-time record is 21 out of 24, but he usually falls in the 18-20 range.
For the second straight year he is providing The MoCoShow with his prediction and we are excited to share.
Is the glass half empty or half full?
For Team Half Empty, this year’s Oscar telecast arrives on the heels of a global pandemic that shuttered theaters and decimated the industry, after an agonizingly long season, and bearing a decidedly grim compendium of nominees. While last year’s show basked in the grandeur of an Avengers swan song, this year’s frontrunner features Frances McDormand shitting in a bucket. In a van.
You half fullers also have an argument as this year streamed films were eligible (Netflix claims the most nominees for the first time), the ceremony is produced by Steven Soderbergh (of Ocean’s 11 fame) in Union Station (of Blade Runner fame), and thankfully in person. Given the glutton of Zoom award shows (…and Zoom family reunions, Zoom school, and even Zoom trials…), seeing actual, real life human beings is a refreshing rejoinder to a rough year.
So you have little to lose by tuning in.
Just don’t forget your bucket.
Key:
Will Win: Bet your first born on it (…but only if you’re at least semi-fond of your second born…)
Alternate: The most likely upset
Should Win: Who would win in Voltaire’s “best of all possible worlds”
Should’ve Been Nominated: Who the Academy snubbed entirely
BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: Nomadland
Alternate: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Should’ve been Nominated: Tenet
Let’s lawyer the shit out of it.
Minari is the little film that could, but is ultimately peaking too late. My personal favorite Promising Young Woman could spark a surprise win of Moonlight proportions, but is at best a pink hued dark horse.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 is perhaps the ‘Oscariest’ of the bunch, claimed the SAG ensemble award (a precursor it shares with last year’s winner Parasite), boasts a timely topic, and seems poised to deal a king killing karate chop to the frontrunner…
…which is Nomadland, the understated and underestimated indie darling that charts the aimlessness of modern American melancholy. Already boasting a trophy case adorned with a Golden Globe, PGA (15 of the last 20 winners had one), DGA, and BAFTA, it coasts carefully on a tailwind to the winner’s circle. While 1917 and La La Land both entered the race with identical pedigrees only to go Tango Uniform in the end, every other film in history with this track record has taken the gold.
A sure thing may not exist.
But if you’re looking for a safe bet, this is your huckleberry.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Alternate: Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Should Win: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Should’ve been Nominated: Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods
Zhao will almost certainly become the first woman of color to be named Best Director for her nuanced work in Nomadland, all before going to play in the MCU sandbox with this November’s The Eternals. What are you doing with your 2021?
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alternate: Anthony Hopkins for The Father
Should Win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should’ve Been Nominated: Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods
Anything could happen on Sunday. Hopkins, the proud owner of a newly adopted cat from Turks & Caicos, could win his second statue. Riz Ahmed could repeat Adrien Brody’s 2003 insurgent trip to the podium (hopefully sans the accompanying assault on Halle Berry). Hell, Kanye and Kim could live happily ever after. But none of the above is likely. Instead, the late and great Boseman will receive a career capping victory for his searing and unforgettable final big screen performance.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
Alternate: Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
Should’ve Been Nominated: Sarah Paulson for Run
The most competitive race of the night. Andra Day took the Globe for The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Frances McDormand the BAFTA for Nomadland, and Davis the SAG. Any of them could take the mount. At the risk of watching through rose-colored glasses, I’m giving the advantage to Mulligan for her kinetic chainsaw of a performance in the year’s best film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
Alternate: Paul Raci for Sound of Metal
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
Should’ve been Nominated: Bill Murray for On the Rocks
Absent an Alan Arkin-esque upset, it’s Daniel’s without a doubt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari
Alternate: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should Win: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should’ve Been Nominated: Candice Bergen for Let Them All Talk
Both of the leads in this horse race are wholly deserving. It would be fun to see Bakalova’s outlandish performance art celebrated, but you’d have to have a heart of stone not to fall under Youn’s saccharine spell. Then again, Youn didn’t have to watch Rudy…well…”tuck in his shirt.”
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):
Will Win: Nomadland
Alternate: The Father
Should Win: The White Tiger
Should’ve been Nominated: News of the World
Another nailbiter, but one that Nomadland will likely take faster than Ted Cruz hightailing to Cancun in a crisis.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Alternate: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Should’ve been Nominated: The King of Staten Island
I ordinarily consider it anathema to bet against Aaron Sorkin, but Emerald Fennell’s script is as sharp and savage as a machete and too ingenious to ignore.
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:
Will Win: Soul
Alternate: Wolfwalkers
Should Win: Soul
Should’ve been Nominated: The Willoughbys
Any other year I’d love to see the intoxicating Irish joint Wolfwalkers hurl a stone at the Pixar goliath. However, Soulwasn’t just the best animated movie of the year, it was one of the best movies of the year period.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)
Alternate: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia)
Should Win: Another Round (Denmark)
Should’ve been Nominated: The Platform (Spain)
Ordinarily one of the murkiest of categories to call, Another Round appears on safe ground.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Alternate: Time
Should Win: Time
Should’ve been Nominated: Boys State
A tough nut to crack. The producers of last year’s winner American Factory, some up and comers named Michelle and Barack, roared back with the immensely enjoyable but no less important Crip Camp. Time is a soul wrenching tragedy that performs the hat trick of ending with a glimmer of hope. But the safest money is on the bizarre story of a man and his…octopus? Really…?
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Tenet
Alternate: The Midnight Sky
Should Win: Tenet
Should’ve been Nominated: Extraction
Tenet will probably leave with the Prom Queen. Though it sure would’ve been nice to have at least invited Extractionto the dance.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Alternate: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Should Win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Should’ve been Nominated: “Only the Young” from Taylor Swift: Miss Americana
Why not give it to Eurovision? If this year’s collection of nominees represents a nadir in this category, its apexes include the 2000 nomination of South Park‘s “Blame Canada” and the underdog victory of Three 6 Mafia in 2006. A Eurovision victory could restore such an airy trend. PS Who in the literal fuck didn’t include Taylor?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: Soul by Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Alternate: Mank by Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Should Win: Soul by Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Should’ve been Nominated: Tenet by Ludwig Goransson
Reznor and Ross have been delivering some of the most dynamic cinematic scores ever since they threw down the gauntlet with The Social Network a decade ago. Could a split between their two magnum opuses this year leave a lane for Minari? Don’t bet on it.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: Nomadland
Alternate: Mank
Should Win: Mank
Should’ve been Nominated: The Vast of Night OR Promising Young Woman
While last minute buzz (and an ASC win) for Mank could carry the day, a Nomadland tsunami is likely to wash up on this beach too.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will Win: Mank
Alternate: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Mank
Should’ve been Nominated: Da 5 Bloods
It’s Mank‘s to lose.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alternate: Hillbilly Elegy
Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should’ve been Nominated: Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey
With all due respect to Glenn Close’s Hillbilly swagger, I think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has this one sewn up tight.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Alternate: Emma
Should Win: Mulan
Should’ve been Nominated: Promising Young Woman
While the Viagra guzzling Academy notoriously goes ape shit for classical period catnip, Ma Rainey has the momentum.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Alternate: Sound of Metal
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Should’ve been Nominated: Run
Chicago‘s ACE gives it the edge, but don’t be surprised if Sound of Metal shows up instead (as 13 of the last 20 films to win a sound award also won in editing).
BEST SOUND:
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Alternate: Mank
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should’ve Been Nominated: Extraction
Let’s first take a moment to commend the combination of the two prior sound awards into this single category, as not even obsessed cinephiles like myself could really explain the difference between them (even if we claimed we could…). The inaugural winner of said rechristened category will be the superb Sound of Metal.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Alternate: A Concerto is a Conversation
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Alternate: Burrow
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Alternate: The Letter Room
Your (Zoom) Office Pool Approved Shortlist:
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Director: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari
Best Screenplay (Adapted): Nomadland
Best Screenplay (Original): Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Film: Soul
Best Foreign Film: Another Round (Denmark)
Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
Best Song: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Best Score: Soul by Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Production Design: Mank
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
Best Short Documentary: A Love Song for Latasha
Best Short Film (Animated): If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Short Film (Live Action): Two Distant Strangers
