The Washington Commanders are coming off a successful 12-5 season, reaching the NFC Championship before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. With a strong turnaround driven by a mix of young players and veterans, the team now faces decisions about re-signing 29 of its free agents in addition to looking for outside talent to bring in. We will provide our predictions on the likelihood of each free agent from this past season’s team returning to the team next year.
Bobby Wagner, LB: Wagner led the team in tackles and made the Pro Bowl. The veteran will be 35 prior to the start of the season, but we think he will be back. 80% chance of return.
Marcus Mariota, QB: Mariota was a pleasant surprise the few times he was called upon to take the helm. We think he’ll be back. 75% chance of return.
Jeremy Chinn, S: Chinn has a solid year, starting all 17 games for the Commanders. If it requires breaking the bank, he may not be back, but we think there’s a good chance. 65% chance of return.
K.J. Osborn, WR: Osborn was claimed late in the season after an injury ended Noah Brown’s season. We don’t think he’ll be back. 15% chance of return.
Clelin Ferrell, EDGE: Ferrell has a decent year, primarily as a starter. While he is serviceable, he doesn’t really change the game. If he returns, it’s likely as a depth piece. 45% chance of return.
Tress Way, P: Tress Way wasn’t used as much as previous year, and that’s a great thing. Way is the longest tenured player and did a great job pointing when called upon. We think he’ll be back. 80% chance of return.
Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE: Fowler had good numbers (10.5 sacks) and flashed at times, but was often taken out of the game when the Commanders were unable to stop the run. He’s also going to be 31 at the start of next season. He may be able to get more elsewhere. 50% chance of return.
Michael Davis, CB: Davis just didn’t look like he could play at the NFL level anymore. We doubt he’s back. 5% chance of return.
Zach Ertz, TE: Ertz saw a resurgence and loves playing with Jayden Daniels. We think he will be back, but look for Sinnott or another more explosive pass-catching tight end to take more of his playing time. 70% chance of return.
Cornelius Lucas, LT: Lucas has been a reliable swing tackle, starting 38 games for Washington in his five season here. He will be 34 prior to the start of the season, but can definitely play the same role next season. 65% chance of return.
Michael Deiter, G/C: Deiter filled in for Biadasz when needed, but there was a visible drop off each time. He may return in the same role due to his ability to also play guard. 30% chance of return.
Trenton Scott, RT: Scott is a veteran who showed he still had something left in the tank when called upon to start a couple games. He’s getting up there in age and a younger piece with more potential could be a better fit. 30% chance of return.
Noah Igbinoghene, CB: The former first round pick who Dan Quinn was familiar with ended up starting ten games, which is likely not something that team was looking for him to do. He can be back as the fourth corner. 55% chance of return.
Olamide Zaccheaus, WR: Zaccheus had career highs in targets and catches this past season, and showed that he belongs on an NFL roster. While the team will look to improve at receiver, Zaccheus’ hustle may have made him a favorite among the coaching staff. 50% chance of return.
Benjamin St-Juste, CB: While many never want to hear his name again, we actually think he will go somewhere else and be very serviceable…we just don’t think it will be here. 5% chance of return.
Jamison Crowder, WR: It felt good seeing Crowder make some plays this year, and he did alright as a returner too. He is getting older, and we think it’s more likely that his career is done. 15% chance of return.
Dyami Brown, WR: Brown played very well in the playoffs and may have earned himself a decent contract. While there’s a chance he returns, it may hinge on if Washington can land a true #2 receiver. 40% chance of return.
Noah Brown, WR: Brown was WR2 for most of the games he played in and was a pleasant surprise as a late free agency addition before an injury ended his season early. He might be available for less than Dyami would cost and similar production. 50% chance of return.
Nick Bellore, LB: The special teams ace played well, but this spot may go to a younger player with potential to contribute elsewhere too. 25% chance of return.
Sheldon Day, DT: Day is a veteran who saw action in 12 games. The team is looking to improve production from the interior defensive line, so it’s not looking good for Day. 10% chance of return.
Jeff Driskel, QB: Driskel played well enough in the preseason and has a skill set similar to Mariota’s. If the team feels Hartman has made enough progress to take the 3rd QB spot, Driskel may be out of luck. 40% chance of return.
Jeremy McNichols, RB: The vet may be remembered for his costly fumble in the NFC Championship game against the Eagles, but he blocked well and contributed as a backup during the season. We can see a younger player taking this role. 20% chance of return.
Austin Seibert and Zane Gonzalez, K: Seibert made 27 of 30 field goals last season and missed one along with two extra points in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys before being placed on injured reserve. His last game left a bad taste in our mouth, but we think he and Gonzalez return to battle it out.
Jalyn Holmes, DL: Holmes had two sacks in eleven games with the Commanders (he also played in five with the Jets). The veteran’s versatility may give him a chance to be brought back. 30% chance of return.
Mykal Walker, LB: Walker saw time behind Frankie Luvu this year and may be brought back as to fight for a spot in camp. 35% chance of return.
John Bates, TE: A solid blocking tight end who doesn’t provide much in the receiving game. If Sinnott takes on a bigger role and Ertz is brought back, there may not be much of a place for Bates. 25% chance of return.
Darrick Forrest, S: Forrest fell out of favor with the current coaching staff and will likely get an opportunity to play elsewhere. We don’t see him returning. 10% chance of return.