FOX 5 DC has released its Winter Outlook for the 2026-2027 season, forecasting a much warmer winter across the Washington, D.C. region, with below-average snowfall overall but the potential for a major winter storm.
The FOX 5 Weather Team is predicting 6 to 12 inches of snow for the immediate D.C. metropolitan area, including D.C., Montgomery County, and Northern Virginia. Areas farther north and west, including portions Frederick County, are in the 12 to 20-inch range on the station’s snowfall map. Higher elevations in western Maryland and West Virginia are expected to receive significantly more snow.
Last winter, FOX 5 predicted 12 to 18 inches for the immediate D.C. metro area, a forecast that ended up being fairly accurate for Montgomery County. Communities including Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring finished the season with approximately 11 to 15 inches, while areas farther north, including Gaithersburg, Germantown, and Damascus, received between 12 and 18 inches.
This year’s forecast calls for a different overall pattern, largely driven by what FOX 5 describes as a potentially historic Super El Niño. The weather team expects the climate pattern to bring milder Pacific air into the Mid-Atlantic while creating an active storm track capable of producing significant precipitation throughout the winter. Temperatures are projected to average 2 to 4 degrees above normal, potentially putting Washington, D.C. in contention for one of its 10 warmest winters on record. FOX 5 is also forecasting 10 to 13 inches of liquid precipitation, meaning the region could experience a relatively wet winter despite receiving less snow than usual.
According to the station, much of that precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than snow. The combination of warmer temperatures and fewer opportunities for accumulating snowfall is expected to keep seasonal snow totals below average across much of the region. However, FOX 5 is not ruling out a significant winter storm. In fact, the weather team believes the overall pattern could create the region’s highest blizzard potential in a decade, particularly if a coastal storm develops along a favorable track while sufficiently cold air is in place.
That possibility creates what FOX 5 describes as a boom-or-bust snowfall scenario. Rather than experiencing numerous smaller snow events throughout the season, the region could receive much of its snowfall from one or two significant storms. Whether those storms develop, and whether temperatures are cold enough to support snow, will play a major role in determining the season’s final totals.
The forecast follows the recently released Capital Weather Gang Winter Outlook, which also calls for a warmer and wetter winter with below-average snowfall. Capital Weather Gang is predicting approximately 8 to 16 inches across Montgomery County, compared with FOX 5’s general 6 to 12-inch forecast for the immediate D.C. area and higher totals farther north and west. WJLA’s Storm Alert Weather team is predicting 10-20 inches for Washington, D.C. and much of the immediate metro area, including about half of Montgomery County.
