Andrew Italia is a Quince Orchard High School graduate and MoCo resident. When he was in college at the University of Maryland, he was the movie critic for The Maryland Diamondback. During his time as the movie critic, he began making Oscar predictions for all 24 categories. His all-time record is 21 out of 24, but he usually falls in the 18-20 range. Last Week we shared his Top 12 movie list for 2024. For more movies on Twitter/X, see @italia_budo
George Daniel famously frowned upon fiddling while Rome burned. Though his criticism was ostensibly aimed at Emperor Nero, he could have been talking about Tinseltown. Even as wildfires tragically ravaged Hollywood, displacing tens of thousands and killing dozens, politicking for the Oscars struck the sewer with enough force to shame Uncle Eddie. Whether pettifogging over the use of AI in The Brutalist, relitigating years-old tweets sent by Emilia Perez performers, or bemoaning the lack of intimacy coordinators on Anora‘s set, Oscar campaigns became mired in a miasma of the inconsequential amidst a sincere tragedy. So while this year’s show will go on, let’s hope that the city will be better off by the time the curtains rise next year. Until then, let the fiddling continue…
Key:
Will Win: Bet your first born on it (…but only if you’re at least semi-fond of your second born…)
Alternate: The most likely upset
Should Win: Who wins in Voltaire’s “best of all possible worlds”
Should’ve Been Nominated: Who the Academy snubbed entirely
BEST PICTURE:
Will Win: Anora
Alternate: Conclave
Should Win: Anora
Should’ve been Nominated: Challengers
After a slightly murky start to the season, a majority opinion emerged. Anora has already collected a BFCA, Spirit, PGA, DGA, and WGA, and looks likely to Academy Award the shit out of it come Sunday (…since the onset of ranked voting, no film with DGA and PGA wins and a SAG ensemble nomination has ever lost).
The dissents are plentiful but still possible. The Brutalist and its attendant Brady Corbet bros could cash in on its auteur cred. Emilia Perez starts the show as the most nominated (thirteen times, to be precise). The populist play would be to go full Wicked – though the last movie to win here without writing or directing nominations was Grand Hotel in 19 MF 30.
The likeliest upset? None other than Berger’s bullish and well-baked BAFTA winner Conclave, which could emerge as the compromise candidate from the fog of a preferential ballot battle. The timely sympathy for its subject matter and its SAG ensemble win could propel it across the finish line (…seven of the last nine films to win a BAFTA and SAG ensemble have won here).
The safest money is still on the stripper with the golden heart.
…though how far did Ani herself get by playing it safe?
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Sean Baker for Anora
Alternate: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Should Win: Sean Baker for Anora
Should’ve been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two
Baker won the DGA. Nine of the last ten to do so also banked Oscar gold. Wager accordingly.
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Alternate: Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
Should’ve Been Nominated: Aaron Pierre in Rebel Ridge
A coin toss. Frontrunner Adrien Brody remains the youngest actor to win this prize for The Pianist in 2003 (…before planting a wet one upon poor Halle Berry in a particularly ick pre-#MeToo moment). Should SAG winner Tim take it instead, he’ll beat said record (…though if he loses, he’s still the youngest double nominee since Jimmy Dean). Let’s just hope whoever wins keeps his hands to himself.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Demi Moore in The Substance
Alternate: Mikey Madison in Anora
Should Win: Mikey Madison in Anora
Should’ve Been Nominated: Zendaya in Challengers
The closest acting race of the night remains a dead heat (which is fitting as this is the first time in 55 years that all nominees hail from films nominated for Best Picture). In one corner is Demi “GI Jane” Moore, the veteran with the masterclass performance and galvanizing Golden Globes speech (…and one armed push-ups). In the other is newcomer Mikey Madison, who took the BAFTA and Spirit Award with her charm. With more and more international voters in the Academy, Fernanda Torres could benefit from a split vote too. Shame Zendaya couldn’t play at all.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Alternate: Yura Borisov in Anora
Should Win: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Should’ve been Nominated: Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing OR Chris Hemsworth in Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
“Fuller, go easy on the Pepsi!”…she said to the future Oscar winner.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez
Alternate: Ariana Grande in Wicked
Should Win: Ariana Grande in Wicked
Should’ve Been Nominated: Katy O’Brian in Love Lies Bleeding
Saldana (…who has starred in the three highest grossing films in history) will continue her winning streak here despite Netflix’s buggering the politics of it all. But wouldn’t it be grand(e) to see Ariana win? …get it?
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):
Will Win: Conclave
Alternate: Nickel Boys
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Should’ve been Nominated: Hit Man
While Conclave didn’t qualify for a WGA nom, it won a Scripter and is still the sure fire choice.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
Will Win: Anora
Alternate: A Real Pain
Should Win: A Real Pain
Should’ve been Nominated: Challengers
Likely Anora‘s to lose…though Jesse Eisenberg’s script has been taking scalps too as of late…
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE:
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Alternate: Flow
Should Win: The Wild Robot
Should’ve been Nominated: Transformers One
The capstone of a banner year for animation will likely be a Wild Robot win. Though it’s never wise to count out a cat that survived dogs, floods, and the actual ass end of the world.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Alternate: Emilia Perez (France)
Should Win: Flow (Latvia)
Should’ve been Nominated: Under Paris (France)
All five nominees are accomplished and worthy of accolades. But none featured friggin’ sharks swimming in the catacombs. Just saying.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will Win: No Other Land
Alternate: Porcelain War
Should Win: No Other Land
Should’ve been Nominated: The Blue Angels OR Girls State
This category is always a knotty one to call, but No Other Land appears the current favorite.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Alternate: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should’ve been Nominated: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
VES winner Kingdom is certainly worthy. However, only four of its last eleven winners took the Oscar too. While Dune‘s rather dismal showing makes me less than sanguine about its chances overall, it likely posts a W here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Perez
Alternate: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Perez
Should’ve been Nominated: “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
It’s always been a low bar to hurdle, but this year’s lackluster crop of nominees still managed to trip over it. Perez is lucky that Zoe can sure as shit rock out a red suit.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Will Win: The Brutalist by Daniel Blumberg
Alternate: Conclave by Volker Bertelmann
Should Win: The Brutalist by Daniel Blumberg
Should’ve been Nominated: Challengers by Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Reznor and Ross upped the ante again to trumpet the best chords heard in theaters last year… Too bad no one nominated it. Their loss will be Blumberg’s gain.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: The Brutalist
Alternate: Maria
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should’ve been Nominated: Nickel Boys
Quite a few DPs could capture a shot of Lady Liberty sailing towards Ellis Island. Not so many would do it so well upside down. That won’t stop the ASC-winning Maria from gunning for its ass (…the last winner to pull off a win without a corresponding Picture nom was 2017’s Blade Runner 2049…)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Will Win: Wicked
Alternate: The Brutalist
Should Win: Wicked
Should’ve been Nominated: Megalopolis
As my daughter will readily remind you, every single tulip in the opening sequence was real. All nine million of them. If that doesn’t earn you an Oscar…
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
Will Win: The Substance
Alternate: Wicked
Should Win: The Substance
Should’ve been Nominated: Longlegs
Putting the ‘horror’ back in ‘body horror.’
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Will Win: Wicked
Alternate: Nosferatu
Should Win: Gladiator II
Should’ve been Nominated: Horizon: An American Saga: Chapter 1
Wicked wins here too.
BEST FILM EDITING:
Will Win: Conclave
Alternate: Anora
Should Win: Anora
Should’ve been Nominated: Nickel Boys
Should Sean Baker win here, along with Picture, Directing, and Original Screenplay, he’ll be the first person to win four prizes for one film in one night. If not, he’ll just have to settle for one lousy Palme d’Or…
BEST SOUND:
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Alternate: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should’ve Been Nominated: Civil War
My head says go with the musical, meaning either the CAS-winning A Complete Unknown or the MPSE-winning Wicked. My gut says the louder effects driven film (and other MPSE winner) Dune prevails.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Alternate: Incident
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Will Win: Beautiful Men
Alternate: Wander to Wonder
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Alternate: Anuja
Your Quick and Dirty Shortlist:
Best Picture: Anora
Best Director: Sean Baker for Anora
Best Actor: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
Best Actress: Demi Moore in The Substance
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez
Best Screenplay (Adapted): Conclave
Best Screenplay (Original): Anora
Best Animated Film: The Wild Robot
Best International Film: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land
Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Best Song: “El Mal” from Emilia Perez
Best Score: The Brutalist by Daniel Blumberg
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist
Best Production Design: Wicked
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance
Best Costume Design: Wicked
Best Film Editing: Conclave
Best Sound: Dune: Part Two
Best Short Documentary: I Am Ready, Warden
Best Short Film (Animated): Beautiful Men
Best Short Film (Live Action): The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent