Crazy now to think that, this time last year, there was a legitimate argument to be made that Paint Branch might finally catch Quince Orchard at the right moment. The Panthers had reason to believe the Cougars’ standard had slipped just enough. Then reality hit as Quince Orchard defeated Paint Branch 42-7.
Now the preseason whispers about Paint Branch pulling off the upset are mostly coming from inside Burtonsville. For this to be the year, Paint Branch would need to produce an underdog story for the ages. The problem is that Quince Orchard has plenty of reasons to believe its latest group can keep the machinery running.
The first major question is the most obvious one: Who replaces Will Drakeford? Drakeford was integral to Quince Orchard’s fast start last season and its march to another state championship. With him now off to college, the Cougars turn to Carter Dailey, who spent his first two years at St. Frances (Baltimore) as a backup.
Dailey is not a carbon copy of Drakeford, and the biggest difference may be experience. His varsity work at St. Frances was largely confined to backup duty in blowouts, meaning this will be a very different environment from what he has known.
There is plenty to like, though. From the limited film available, Dailey shows a strong arm and an apparent willingness to attack the middle of the field, including some throws into tight windows. He does not appear to have the same natural inclination to run that recent Quince Orchard quarterbacks have possessed, although his performance in the Dunbar scrimmage included rollout work that showed he can throw accurately on the move.
The Dunbar scrimmage was also a reminder that Dailey has plenty to clean up. That is hardly unusual for a quarterback making his first varsity start. And he will have help. Quince Orchard returns starting receivers Rafferty Bankert and Isaiah Simms, who each caught a touchdown against Paint Branch last year. Defensive stars Ryan Drakeford and Rico Jackson could also see opportunities on offense. So while Dailey is the biggest unknown on this roster, he is hardly walking into an empty cupboard.
The ground game still matters. For all the attention surrounding the passing game, I would expect Quince Orchard’s rushing attack to remain the heartbeat of the offense. Nearly the entire running back room from last season is back.
Jaiden Hebron is healthy and looking to build on a promising junior season that was cut short by injury. Damien Hurtado remains available as the battering ram. Then there is RJ Royster, who generated legitimate buzz about winning the starting job last season before missing the entire year. That is a senior trio with something to prove.
There is one caveat. Quince Orchard’s running game was not considered quite as explosive last year as some of the Cougar attacks that preceded it. The question now is whether another offseason of development has changed that.
At least one of these backs needs to emerge as the kind of runner who can turn an ordinary handoff into a problem for the defense. Paint Branch would prefer that answer be no.
The trenches are the real question. If there is a legitimate place for Paint Branch to attack, it may be here. Quince Orchard’s biggest losses came along both lines, and that matters. Veteran trench play was a major reason the Cougars were able to run the table last year, particularly on defense, where a three-man rush routinely swallowed opposing backfields. Two of those three defensive linemen are gone. So is Diego Rodriguez, who leaves holes in just about every phase of the game.
The offensive line also needs rebuilding. Jeff Summerour is the lone returning starter, although the addition Patrick Porto, listed at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, should help. There is still plenty of reason to believe the Cougars can reload.
Jaheim Bond, the lone returning defensive lineman, enters the season as a preseason favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and perhaps even the county’s MVP. Junior Urijah Lyles saw meaningful rotation snaps last season and now has an opportunity to take over one edge full-time. At nose tackle, Amare Terry brings considerable size and another lost season to make up for after missing his junior year.
And then there is the secondary. Rico Jackson has already established himself as a lockdown CB1. Ryan Drakeford can line up practically anywhere. Amar’ee Wilson, Adrien Harris, Antoine Robinson, Jamie White Jr. and Cordell Young give Quince Orchard an extraordinary amount of depth and athleticism behind the front. Paint Branch may be able to test the new pieces up front. It will have a much harder time testing the Cougars downfield.
Paint Branch begins and ends with Bah. It is difficult to summarize the Panthers’ offense without simply saying two words: Alijah Bah. Opening script? Give it to Bah. Goal line? Give it to Bah again. Need to recover the yards from a negative play? Bah can probably handle that, too. Want to throw? Put the ball in Bah’s hands on a screen, a flat route or a wheel.
The three-year starter is set up for a monster senior season, and he can do almost anything Paint Branch needs him to do. He can even throw the ball when the Panthers want to get particularly adventurous. There should be no shortage of motivation, either. Bah’s junior season ended prematurely because of injury, and his last game against Quince Orchard was perhaps the biggest nonfactor of his career. There are teams on the Paint Branch schedule against which you could theoretically hand Bah the ball every snap and have a reasonable chance of winning.
That is where the Panthers’ offensive questions become much more significant. Bah is the one known quantity. Elric Andrews, who has been around the program for some time, should provide a solid complement. After that, there are a lot of blanks to fill.
The quarterback battle comes down to senior Leoul Solomon, who has backed up Vincent Do the past two seasons, and sophomore Tristan Wise, who is moving up from JV. Solomon has had two years to learn the position, but he has attempted only six varsity passes.
The offensive line also has significant turnover. That does not mean the next group cannot play. It means they have a lot to prove. And it may mean coach Michael Nesmith needs to find out quickly whether his quarterback can do more than manage the game. Against Quince Orchard, there may come a point when somebody has to make a play that was not on the original script.
There were encouraging signs in Paint Branch’s scrimmage against Gonzaga, although scrimmages should always be treated cautiously. For now, the Panthers are more projection than certainty. That is not necessarily a bad thing in Week 1. It just makes playing Quince Orchard a particularly inconvenient way to find out.
Paint Branch’s defense has to change the equation. Coach Nesmith has rarely had trouble putting a respectable defense on the field, and there is little reason to expect that to suddenly change. But there are significant losses here, too, including impact players Kaden Chapman and Isaac Timbo.
Based on last year’s production, players such as Malakai Manson, Zyree Byrd, Damani Deadwyler, Jahmarley Forrester and Deon Sales should have opportunities to become household names of their own. Third-year starter Raheim Briddell takes charge in the secondary. The unit is young, but not inexperienced. That distinction could matter Friday.
So, what does Paint Branch actually need to do? For starters, it needs to prove last year’s lessons were actually learned. Expect both defenses to arrive with roughly the same idea: crowd the line of scrimmage, force the opposing quarterback to prove he can beat you and make the other team’s offense live with uncomfortable down-and-distance situations.
Paint Branch has an obvious reason to try it. Dailey is young and unproven. So is the Quince Orchard offensive line. If the Panthers can get pressure without sacrificing coverage, they have a chance to make the new Cougar quarterback uncomfortable. But that second part is critical.
Paint Branch’s pass defense was a major problem in last year’s meeting. Drakeford repeatedly found uncovered receivers for what amounted to layups. Quince Orchard’s staff will remember that, and it will almost certainly have a package of designed throws ready to make things easy for Dailey. If the Panthers give the Cougars the same kind of free access downfield, this game could look an awful lot like the last one.
Offensively, Paint Branch needs to build everything around Bah without becoming predictable. If Paint Branch can stay ahead of the chains with Bah, it can use its passing game more selectively. Quince Orchard will stack the box anyway. It can afford to.
That secondary is too talented to leave Paint Branch’s quarterback one-on-one against the defensive backs all night. Solomon or Wise may have something unexpected waiting. Maybe one of them becomes the surprise story of the night. But if Paint Branch’s first-year starter is forced to manufacture offense on his own against this defense, the Panthers are going to be in serious trouble.
There is reason to be optimistic about Paint Branch. The Panthers should be motivated, and there is no shortage of hungry players waiting for their first opportunity to become the next names everyone talks about. But Quince Orchard has spent the better part of the past several years making one thing clear: optimism is not the same thing as evidence. Paint Branch gets another chance to find some.
Prediction: Quince Orchard 28, Paint Branch 7
