After a stretch of unusually warm November weather, several Maryland meteorologists and a popular Northern Virginia weather enthusiast are drawing attention to computer models showing the possibility of accumulating snow across the region next weekend. Before anyone gets too excited, there’s a major disclaimer.
Snowfall projections more than a week in advance are highly unreliable, and the maps being shared are not official forecasts. In fact, one of the meteorologists sharing the maps has already said he does not believe the significant snowfall being depicted is likely to happen. Still, the possibility of a dramatic shift from mild November temperatures to much colder weather has generated some early excitement among snow enthusiasts.
WBAL meteorologist Tony Pann shared a European AI weather model showing a potential snowstorm on Sunday, November 15. The map depicted approximately 3.5 inches of snow in Washington, D.C., 7 inches across portions of Montgomery County, and more than 11 inches in northern Carroll County. “The X Weather Police are going to get me for this one!” Pann joked while sharing the map.
Pann explained that while conditions around Baltimore have been rainy, muggy, and mild, many weather models are suggesting a significant cooldown across the Mid-Atlantic in approximately seven to eight days. One model, the European AI Forecast System (AIFS), takes things considerably further by depicting a substantial snowstorm.“Now, do I think this is likely to happen? NO. But don’t be surprised if some of you see the first snowflakes of the season,” Pann wrote.
Baltimore-area meteorologist Justin Berk also highlighted the European AI model, noting that it has consistently depicted snow for next weekend across several consecutive runs.
Berk shared a map showing approximately 3 to 5 inches of snow across much of Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland next Friday and Saturday, November 13-14. “For a few days in a row, the European AI Forecast System has been producing snow for next weekend,” Berk wrote. “This is too juicy to not show you and now about 1 week away. It is lower than the prior model run, but still there.”
Berk also questioned whether the region could experience a dramatic reversal following recent warm weather and thunderstorms, reminding followers that November snowfall has occurred in the area before.
Meanwhile, Leesburg-based weather enthusiast Jay’s Wintry Mix, which has more than 100,000 social media followers, shared an even more aggressive model projection. The map depicted approximately 7 to 12 inches of snow across portions of Northern Virginia and central and northern Maryland by November 16.
Jay acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding such an early projection, explaining that he has a tradition of sharing the first computer model of the season that depicts accumulating snow in the Washington, D.C. area. “Why am I posting this now? Because we all know what’s going to happen on the 12z run. Winter Weenies rejoice!” he wrote, referencing how quickly computer model projections can change.
While the maps are certainly attention-grabbing, they represent individual computer model simulations rather than reliable snowfall predictions. Forecast models can change significantly from one run to the next, particularly when attempting to predict precipitation type and accumulation more than a week in advance.
Even relatively small changes in temperature, storm track, or timing could mean the difference between accumulating snow, a few passing snowflakes, rain, or no precipitation at all.
For now, the more noteworthy possibility is a substantial cooldown across the Mid-Atlantic next weekend. Whether that colder air will coincide with enough moisture to produce snow remains uncertain. We’ll continue monitoring the forecasts as November 13-16 approaches and meteorologists get a clearer picture of what the region can realistically expect.
