Each year, MoCoSnow takes a look at the most popular winter outlooks in our region, comparing forecasts from the major local TV networks and respected private meteorologists. One of the most anticipated of the bunch always comes from The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang (CWG), widely regarded as one of the most trusted and influential weather authorities in the DC region.
CWG has issued its 2025–2026 Winter Outlook, and this year’s projection is closest to the winter outlook released last week by FOX 5’s Mike Thomas. Both forecast a colder-than-average winter with snowfall totals that fall just shy of long-term seasonal norms.
In summarizing their take on the season ahead, Capital Weather Gang writes: “We expect a repeat of the chill — but with a bit less snow overall.” Their snowfall forecast for the region calls for 8 to 14 inches in the immediate D.C. area, with up to a foot and a half in colder spots north and west of the city (most of Montgomery County). CWG explains that this is “a touch below normal, but still more than what’s fallen in six of the past 10 winters,” highlighting how quiet recent winters have been.
For Montgomery County, CWG projects 10–18 inches of snow for most of the county, with 8–14 inches in the southeastern portion (areas closer to the Beltway and I-95). Capital Weather Gang also offered insight into its long-running track record with seasonal forecasting: “We have been doing winter outlooks since 2005–2006 and have evaluated ourselves after the fact most years. We’ve generally been in the ballpark — although we’ve had notable triumphs and misses — giving ourselves an average grade of around a B– or C+.”
They note that last winter’s outlook was one of their stronger performances: “Our outlook for last winter was solid and about the most accurate among outlooks produced by private companies and TV stations. Our predictions for near-normal snowfall and temperatures came close to reality.”
CWG’s forecast adds to a growing consensus among local meteorologists who see this winter as colder and more active than many recent years, but not necessarily a blockbuster.
