The Winter Weather Advisory issued early this morning remains in effect from 7pm tonight, but it was recently extended until 10am for Northwest MoCo.
The featured photo shows the latest map from the National Weather Service, which hasn’t been updated since 3:51am this morning.
Below you’ll see what the advisory consists of for Northwest MoCo, per the National Weather Service:
* WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of
around one tenth of an inch, with locally two tenths of an
inch in the higher elevations. Snow and sleet accumulations
less than a half inch are also possible.
* WHERE…Portions of central, north central and northern
Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern and
panhandle West Virginia.
* WHEN…Until 10 AM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Light mixed precipitation will occur at times today, but a prolonged period of freezing rain will lead to greater impacts tonight into Friday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
There are slight differences for Central/SE MoCo, with a little less icing/precipitation expected. That advisory can be seen below:
* WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Sleet accumulations less than half an inch.
* WHERE…Portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia.
* WHEN…From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Light mixed precipitation may occur at times today, but the greater risk for hazardous travel will come from freezing rain tonight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
We will continue to update throughout the day with a Pencil Prediction coming tonight.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect this evening (Thursday, 2/24) at 7pm until tomorrow morning (Friday, 2/25) at 7am.
Per the National Weather Service:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY…
* WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Sleet accumulations less than half an inch.
* WHERE…Portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia.
* WHEN…From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Light mixed precipitation may occur at times today, but the greater risk for hazardous travel will come from freezing rain tonight.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
We’ll continue to update throughout the day.
Today we enjoyed temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s, giving the area a taste of spring. Temperatures are expected to crash overnight, dropping to/around the freezing mark mid-morning Thursday morning. Highs tomorrow will likely be around 35 degrees with temperatures hovering around freezing again Thursday night when the precipitation begins and go back up to about 35 degrees in the morning. Right now, temperatures don’t support much ice, but it’s still possible things are a little cooler than expected.
The most recent map from the National Weather Service, seen in our featured photo, shows almost all of MoCo getting a trace of ice with a sprinkle of northern areas getting up to a tenth of an inch.
Though temperatures could reach or even go below freezing, the ground will struggle to get cold enough to support much ice. Significant icing has a better chance of occurring the further north you go, but we’ll continue to monitor and have an update tomorrow morning.
Per the National Weather Service:
Arctic high pressure will allow for much colder air to build in ahead of the disturbance tomorrow but there continues to be a battle thermally for how p-types are going to be realized. For now, the most likely scenario as of the latest guidance would be for an initial period of rain/snow/sleet mix when temperatures are hovering at or just slightly below freezing. With the CAD wedge in place, it will be difficult to pinpoint the gradient of 0C and colder temps for the day on Thursday and into Friday.
Temperatures off the surface and further up are expected to warm up a bit during the day and will therefore start to introduce freezing rain potential for portions of the area, particularly north-west of the DC metro area. Guidance continues to be in a bit of disagreement with respect to temperatures and freezing rain accumulations. NAM/NAMnest/HRW suite are all much colder than other guidance and have been showing a cold bias this winter so inclination at this time is to gear towards a bit warmer solution with respect to this event. Canadian/GFS/ECMWF have a more climatological approach to the colder temperatures and the ice accumulation.
It will be interesting to see how temperatures and dew points react tonight and into Thursday morning to account for the potential shift in higher ice accumulation potential. For now, overall ice accumulations looks to be most significant across eastern Garrett, western Allegany and western Mineral counties. Ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch to three tenths of an inch are possible for those areas, yielding a Winter Storm Watch.
Elsewhere, accumulations of less than a quarter of an inch are expected north and west of DC, with higher amounts particularly in and around the Mason-Dixon line. Guidance has continued to have a northern shift in the higher amounts in terms of QPF and ice accumulation well into PA. Conditions should begin to improve by late Thursday night (southwestern areas) to late Friday morning (NE MD). Continue to visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest winter forecast. Behind the disturbance, gusty winds will build in on Friday. These gusty northwest winds may be strong enough to yield a Wind Advisory but confidence is low at this time. Upslope snow may be possible for the Allegheny Front Friday night into Saturday morning with lingering low-level moisture coupled with a colder airmass.
The National Weather Service has Montgomery County in the “Slight Winter Storm Threat” category for potential winter weather Thursday into Friday.
As of now, not much is expected for Montgomery County, with the threat of ice accumulation staying north for the most part. As you can see in the map below, some of the yellow goes into MoCo with Damascus possible having to deal with very light ice (one hundredth of an inch).
Some models have us getting a little bit ice while others have us getting nothing at all. It’s worth keeping an eye on, but not something to worry about yet.
Forecaster’s Discussion from the National Weather Service can be seen below:
The forecast becomes rather tricky in the details advancing forward through Thursday as light precipitation overspreads the area. There is not a strong models signal for widespread subfreezing temperatures, however dew points will drop into the teens/lower 20s behind the front. This sets the stage for potential light wintry mix...possibly a bit of snow and sleet at the start, but more of a freezing rain concern for any areas that are below freezing (or end up there due to wetbulb processes). The complex interaction between temperatures and precipitation during this first round will set the stage for additional freezing rain Thursday night as low pressure approaches the Appalachians. The highest precipitation amounts are currently forecast near and north of the Pennsylvania border. This also happens to be where temperatures are most likely to be near the freezing mark. The current forecast acknowledges the potential for cold air damming to work in favor of wintry precipitation in climatologically favored areas and temperatures are below blended guidance. However, there could be a more widespread light icing threat, at least for a time. Stay tuned to the latest forecast.
Snow totals are in from across the county after this morning’s light snow that caused minimal disruption across the area. The forecast for this storm was pretty accurate, as temperatures dropped overnight bringing light snow into the area for approximately 1-2” across the board with some areas a little higher.
The totals below come from the National Weather Service from various times throughout the morning and afternoon. Wind chills tonight will be in the teens.
Note: Not all Montgomery County areas are included in the report below.
Damascus 3 SSW 2.1 955 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Damascus 1 S 2.0 737 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Clarksburg 1 SSE 1.5 1230 PM 2/13 Trained Spotter Laytonsville 5 NNW 1.5 900 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Damascus 1 SE 1.5 930 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Germantown 2 WSW 1.5 1130 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter Germantown 5 NNE 1.4 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Poolesville SE 1.3 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Montgomery Village 1 1.2 630 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Colesville 2 W 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Gaithersburg 3 NE 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
North Potomac 4 N 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Norbeck 1 ESE 0.9 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Potomac 1 NNW 0.8 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Olney 1 ENE 0.8 640 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Rossmoor 1 ESE 0.8 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Rockville 3 E 0.6 615 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Colesville 0.5 840 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
White Oak 1 N 0.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Silver Spring 6 NNE 0.2 440 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
The National Weather Service expects Super Bowl Sunday snow, as a Winter Weather Advisory that covers all of MoCo has been issues.
The advisory calls for a widespread 1-2″ of snow with up to 4 inches locally. Below you’ll see the full advisory from the National Weather Service. We’ll have an update on the potential winter weather this evening.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY.
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with up to 4 inches locally.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia.
* WHEN…From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…The heaviest accumulations will be on non- paved surfaces.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Temperatures are expected to reach 60 again today with a mild, breezy and dry day expected. Temperatures will fall rapidly tonight, with overnight rain likely changing to snow for most of the area by early Sunday morning.
The latest map by the National Weather Service has all of MoCo in the 1-2″ range, with ~55% chance at over an inch of snow. This won’t be a crippling storm, but more likely just some flakes to set the mood for the Super Bowl. Temperatures will hover around freezing throughout the day tomorrow and will drop below freezing tomorrow night.
Since the ground is pretty warm from a few consecutive spring-like days, it would take a bit for roads to start to get bad, but we recommend using caution as roads could cave during heavier snowfall.
We’ll have an additional update later this evening or tonight as we get closer to the possible event.
Today will likely be the best day of our recent string of warmer days with highs potentially reaching the mid- 60s as we continue our mid-February taste of spring.
Tomorrow will also be warmer than average too, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s. There has been potential for winter weather late Saturday and Sunday that has gone back and forth between giving us a few inches of snow and not bringing much our way in recent days.
Different models are still showing different solutions with the possibility of little to no snow or a general 1-3 inches. The latest maps from the National Weather Service (seen below) show less than an inch widespread, but the “reasonable worst case” map shows 2-2.5 inches.
We’ll have an update after the afternoon model runs.
The ‘Special Weather Statement’ from earlier today has been update to no longer include C/SE MoCo. It now covers areas as close as Prince George’s County with potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Monday morning commute.
Per the National Weather Service for ‘Special Weather Statement’ areas (shown in featured photo):
“A period of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Monday morning across the Baltimore Metropolitan area, northeast Maryland, and for central and southern Maryland east of Interstate 95, with a light glaze possible on area roads.
If this threat does materialize during the Monday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Monday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options.”
A ‘Hazardous Weather Outlook’ has been released that does include C/SE MoCo, and that states the following:
“Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is possible late tonight for central and southern Maryland east of Interstate 95 as well as northeastern Maryland including the Baltimore Metropolitan area.”
Pencil Prediction: 1 Pencil
The National Weather Service has released a ‘Special Weather Statement’ for the area, which includes Central/SE Montgomery County. The full statement can be seen below:
“There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Monday morning commute.
A period of freezing drizzle is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Monday morning across the Baltimore / Washington metro areas, primarily east of Interstate 95, with a light glaze possible on area roads.
If this threat does materialize during the Monday morning rush- hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays.
If commuting Monday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions.
Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options.”
The Forecaster’s Discussion from the National Weather Service, just before the statement was released:
The soundings on guidance suggest this will be mostly low-level moisture, probably too low for snow given the temps in the profile, but with surface temps near or below freezing late tonight into early Monday, this opens up the possibility of some light freezing rain or drizzle.
Confidence is not at all high, and its possible that the dry air presently over the area ends up eating up most or all of this precip, or that temps manage to moderate enough so that what falls manages to just be liquid, but since any freezing rain or drizzle can be very hazardous, will be issuing a commuter hazard statement for this potential shortly.
Below you’ll see snow totals from across the county courtesy of the National Weather Service.
Note: Not all areas in MoCo area included (CoCoRaHS = a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers)
Colesville 2 W 1.1 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Colesville 1.0 832 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Rossmoor 1 ESE 0.9 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Silver Spring 6 NNE 0.9 430 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Rockville 3 E 0.8 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Norbeck 1 ESE 0.8 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Aspen Hill 1 SW 0.7 915 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Bethesda 2 WNW 0.7 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS White Oak 1 N 0.7 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Potomac 1 NNW 0.6 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Damascus 3 SSW 0.6 700 AM 1/29 Co-Op Observer Olney 1 ENE 0.6 630 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Gaithersburg 3 NE 0.5 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Poolesville SE 0.5 800 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Montgomery Village 1 0.5 630 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Damascus 1 S 0.5 703 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Takoma Park 1 NNW 0.5 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Clarksburg 1 SSE 0.4 1200 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Germantown 5 NNE 0.4 600 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS North Potomac 4 N 0.4 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Laytonsville 2 WNW 0.3 900 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Potomac 3 NE 0.3 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS
