Montgomery County Public Schools has released a survey about the possibility of virtual learning on days when schools are closed due to inclement weather. The survey must be completed by Monday, January 31 at noon.
Per the Maryland State Department of Education, all school systems are required to have at least 180 instructional days per year. With inclement weather, multiple school system closures may require adjustments to the school year calendar (e.g., extending the year, using other identified days). MCPS is planning for options that allow for virtual instruction on inclement weather closure days. While virtual instruction cannot replace time in the classroom, MCPS believes it is essential to continue to provide access to learning opportunities. Your feedback on this intent will help inform the district’s implementation plan.
The survey can be accessed here.
Per MCPS:
Dear MCPS Families,
MCPS is planning for the possibility of virtual learning on days when schools are closed due to inclement weather. It is important that students experience as little learning disruption as possible, so we are asking for your input to inform our initial planning. Please complete this survey and share your thoughts by 12 p.m. on Monday, Jan. 31. See the survey in:
English | Spanish | Chinese | French | Portuguese | Korean | Vietnamese | Amharic
Montgomery County Public Schools
A winter weather advisory is in now in effect for all of MoCo until 4am Saturday morning for C/SE MoCo and until 1am for NW MoCo.
MCPS UPDATE: MCPS Schools Close on Time; After-School and Evening Activities Canceled, Today, Jan. 28. Montgomery County Public Schools will close at the regularly scheduled time today. All after-school and evening school and community activities in school buildings are canceled. Childcare programs in school buildings may remain open as scheduled.
Per the National Weather Service:
* WHAT…Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, northern and central Virginia, and the central Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.
* WHEN…Until 4 AM EST Saturday. The steadiest snow is expected late this afternoon through this evening.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Temperatures will fall below freezing for most areas during the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
The latest map shows a slight increase in projected snow totals with about 1/3 of the county now in the 2-3″ range and 1/3 in the 1-2′ range.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for SE Montgomery County from 4pm today until 4am tomorrow.
Per the National Weather Service:
* WHAT…Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, and portions of central
Maryland and central and northern Virginia.
* WHEN…From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Highs today will reach the mid to upper 30s. While we may see some scattered showers throughout the day (nothing major), snow isn’t expected to start until about 4 or 5pm. Initially this will likely only provide a dusting on the grass until the sun goes down and that’s when road conditions could deteriorate.
The National Weather Service map from early this morning has MoCo in the 1-2” range for this storm, so not too much is expected.
As seen in the tweet below by Fox 5’s Mike Thomas, a general 1-3 is expected (like the advisory states), but there are still “boom” and “bust” possibilities.
How much snow? Minor adjustments to yesterday's map, but generally holding steady with risk of 1-3" around DC. Not a major snow, but things could get slick this evening. For "boom" potential, this morning's NAM brought 6" to DC, while a "bust" would be the HRRR's Trace-2" totals. pic.twitter.com/7OWOQfB1Pp
— Mike Thomas (@MikeTFox5) January 28, 2022
Prince George’s County, which is expecting more snow than us, announced last night that schools will be closing early today due to the weather coming this afternoon.
While it’s possible for us, it’s not likely as heavier snow that would stick to the roads wouldn’t fall until later this evening. There’s a better chance of after school activities being canceled.
Either way, if snow is falling we recommend to use extra caution while driving.
The most recent maps from the National Weather Service shows quite a difference from their “reasonable worst case scenario” to the “low end amount” showing just how much uncertainty there is with this storm.
As you can see above, most of MoCo is in the 1-2 inch range , but the “reasonable worst case scenario” has MoCo at about 5.5-10 inches while the “low end amount” has us getting no snow at all. That’s a range of 0 to 10 inches!
With so much uncertainty, timing beyond “Friday into Saturday” will become a bit clearer tomorrow.
The forecaster’s discussion shows that the NWS is encouraging people to focus on the high and low end amounts:
The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the broader “low-end” and “high-end” potential snowfall amounts at this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability is likely in the “expected” snowfall amounts as finer scale details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days.
The National Weather Service has released its first maps regarding potential snowfall this Friday into Saturday. (At approximately 4:30am and updated at 9:30am).
The expected snowfall map MoCo shows 2-3 inches for almost all of MoCo with just a few areas at 3-4 inches:
The “reasonable worst case scenario” map shows an area-wide 6 inches for MoCo.
The “low end amount” shows no snow.
So we’re supposed to get 0-6 inches? You can look at it that way…or you can look at it as different scenarios that could occur, some more likely than others, according to the information available at the moment.
I understand the frustration, but that’s just what it is, and here’s why:
The Euro, which has a big shift west yesterday moved things east just a bit. It’s now showing about 2-4 for us. The GFS isn’t bringing as much, showing about 1-3 inches for our area. Today’s runs, which usually are the last to show any major shifts, are very important in giving a better idea of what could happen.
We’ll continue to monitor and provide an update later this evening.
We remain in the “slight winter storm” threat category for potential winter weather this Friday into Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s update, this thing can go either way…and it already has. The GFS showed a major storm, took it away, brought it back, took it away (late yesterday), and has kind of brought it back again this morning with the model output showing a general 2-4″ for our area. The Euro didn’t show much, then started bringing the storm our way, took it away, and brought it back overnight for a model output of a general 4-6″ for our area.
The reason for the change is the general path of the low, shown in the graphic below by Fox 5’s Mike Thomas (the big L).
The “coastal track” is what snow lovers should be rooting for, because that would bring the most snow our way. Right now it’s a little further east than the grey arrow above, but not quite as far as the “sea track” that would cause the storm to completely miss us. A slight move to the west and we’re in business for moderate snow. A slight move to the east and we lose the few inches the models are currently showing we could get.
The European model runs again this afternoon and the GFS will run again this evening and late tonight. We’ll continue to monitor.
For the last few days we’ve been tracking a storm that’ll be headed up the coast Friday evening into Saturday.
Early on, the GFS had the coastal storm bringing snow our way, but eventually moved it out east, missing us with most of the moisture. Recent runs have tended west, putting us back into play for measurable snow. The Euro didn’t have this storm coming our way, but has also trended in the favor of snow lovers, though not as much as the GFS.
The National Weather Service has us in the “slight winter storm threat” category as we get within 5 days of this potential storm.
A lot has to go right for this type of storm to work out for us. What we’re looking at now is the path of the low. If it’s too far east, an interior track, then it can be snow to mix to rain or all rain. If it travels up the coast, coastal track, then we are in play for some moderate to heavy snowfall. If it’s too far west, sea track, then the moisture doesn’t even reach us and we likely get nothing.
The graphic below, from Fox 5’s Mike Thomas, does a great job illustrating the potential track of the low.
Yeah, yeah…but how much?
Well that’s all dependent on the track of the storm. As of now, the GFS, which has performed better this winter, has us at a general 2-4/3-5 inches, while the Euro has maybe an inch or two. If things continue trending to the west, potential snow totals can double. If it goes back to where it was the last day or two, then we don’t get any snow at all. If it moves too far west, then we have that rain issue our area is used to.
We’ll continue to monitor and keep you updated on the winter storm that could potentially be headed our way.
The National Weather Service expects “scattered to numerous” snow showers this afternoon through this evening and into tonight.
Per the NWS, snow could coat the ground in some areas, especially north of I66 and US 50 in Northern Virginia:
There would be slick spots when traveling this evening.
Below you’ll see the “Special Weather Statement” for NW MoCo:
Scattered snow showers are expected this evening across portions of northern Virginia, central Maryland, and the Potomac Highlands. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s during this time, and localized accumulations of a coating to an inch are most likely. The best chance for snow showers will be between 7 PM and midnight. Untreated surfaces may become slippery or even icy during this time, so please use extra caution when travelling through this evening.
The National Weather Service has canceled the Winter Weather Advisory for C/SW MoCo, but the advisory remains in effect for NW MoCo until 11am.
The advisory now calls for up to an inch of snow to accumulate on grassy surfaces.
When the decision to close schools was made, just after 7am, the changeover that was supposed to include the strongest band of heavy snow was still supposed to head our way at around 8am. Temperatures, however, didn’t drop as quickly as anticipated and most of us continued with rain (we did receive some reports of snow in Damascus just after 8am).
While there’s a chance areas that aren’t in the advisory still see a slight period of snow, it shouldn’t have much of an effect on any commute going forward.
Since most areas didn’t see any snow, many are wondering why schools are closed. As we mentioned in yesterday’s update with the Pencil Prediction, this one wasn’t going to be easy and it looks like MCPS decided to close to avoid a potential situation where students were leaving their homes during heavy snow.
Featured photo courtesy of Fox 5
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for us tomorrow morning. From 4am in Upper MoCo and 6am in C/SW MoCo until 11am.
The National Weather Service has once again slightly increased its latest maps. About two thirds of MoCo is in the 2-3” range with a third in the 1-2” range. The “reasonable worst case scenario” map now shows up to 4 inches possible.
in the graphing below, by WUSA9, you see a wide range of model outputs for DC tomorrow morning. The 3” from the GFS brings even more to MoCo.
The HRRR, a model that is fairly accurate within short range, shows a very heavy squall line coming through the area around 6am. It has the snow clearing out around 10am.
Snow is likely to start between 5am-7am, which means there’s a chance no snow has fallen by the time MCPS usually makes it’s decision regarding potential inclement weather delays/closures (5am).
Snow will be moderate to heavy for an hour or two, which is why you’re seeing many outlets refer to this as a “burst” of snow. The heaviest would likely fall between 7am-9am, before wrapping up by about 10am.
This could be a situation where the school system has to close, but roads are generally fine by noon or so…just not safe to leave home at 9am (a time many would have to leave if there was a delay).
It won’t be an easy decision for MCPS!
Pencil Prediction: 3 Pencils
A winter weather advisory has been issued for MoCo starting 6am Thursday morning and going until 1pm (4am until 1pm for Upper MoCo).
The latest National Weather Service maps show most of MoCo in the 1-2” range with the upper third of the county in the 2-3” range. The “reasonable worst case scenario” map shows 3 inches for the entire county.
The snow should begin anywhere between 5am and 7am and continue into the late morning.
Per the National Weather Service:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
* WHAT…Snow. Snow accumulations of up to two inches with locally higher amounts around three inches possible.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, portions of central, northern and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia.
* WHEN…From 6 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Precipitation will start as rain and then switch over to snow during the Thursday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
We will have an update for you, including a pencil prediction, tonight.
