For the last few days we’ve been tracking a storm that’ll be headed up the coast Friday evening into Saturday.
Early on, the GFS had the coastal storm bringing snow our way, but eventually moved it out east, missing us with most of the moisture. Recent runs have tended west, putting us back into play for measurable snow. The Euro didn’t have this storm coming our way, but has also trended in the favor of snow lovers, though not as much as the GFS.
The National Weather Service has us in the “slight winter storm threat” category as we get within 5 days of this potential storm.
A lot has to go right for this type of storm to work out for us. What we’re looking at now is the path of the low. If it’s too far east, an interior track, then it can be snow to mix to rain or all rain. If it travels up the coast, coastal track, then we are in play for some moderate to heavy snowfall. If it’s too far west, sea track, then the moisture doesn’t even reach us and we likely get nothing.
The graphic below, from Fox 5’s Mike Thomas, does a great job illustrating the potential track of the low.
Yeah, yeah…but how much?
Well that’s all dependent on the track of the storm. As of now, the GFS, which has performed better this winter, has us at a general 2-4/3-5 inches, while the Euro has maybe an inch or two. If things continue trending to the west, potential snow totals can double. If it goes back to where it was the last day or two, then we don’t get any snow at all. If it moves too far west, then we have that rain issue our area is used to.
We’ll continue to monitor and keep you updated on the winter storm that could potentially be headed our way.
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