Fox 5 is the first of the four major local networks to release its 2024/2025 Winter Outlook. Fox had one of the more conservative outlooks last year in a year when most expected above average snowfall. This year, Fox 5 meteorologist Mike Thomas is taking a similar approach in a year where not much snow is expected, which isn’t great news for snow lovers. As always, we take a quick look at the outlook and provide an analysis before comparing all four major network outlooks when they become available.
According to Thomas, a mild La Niña and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are contributing to a warmer winter this year. The risk of blizzards is lower than usual. He anticipates the sixth consecutive year with below-average snowfall in the D.C. area. Overall, this winter is expected to be drier than normal. While there will be some brief cold spells, they won’t last for long.
If you’re a snow enthusiast, this isn’t the news you were hoping for, but currently, there aren’t many indicators pointing toward a snowier winter. According to the Fox map, most of the DC Metro area is in the 4-10” range (for the entire winter) with areas north in the 8-16” range. Here’s a brief recap:
NOAA is forecasting a mild La Niña winter. Even if we don’t reach that point (“La Nada”), the equatorial Pacific doesn’t seem likely to favor snow lovers this year. Last winter, Thomas emphasized the role of the PDO, which is why his snowfall predictions were lower than most—and they still ended up being too high. The situation remains the same, with the PDO remaining strongly negative.
He mentions that the winters of 2003, 2009/10, and 2016 were all significant blizzard years, all occurring during El Niño events, and characterized by a positive PDO. Since 2019/20, we’ve experienced a negative PDO, and we haven’t had a winter with above-average snowfall since. Thomas does not think that’s just a coincidence.
The full write up by Mike Thomas and FOX 5 can be seen here.