For over 200 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has been predicting long-range weather forecasts using what they refer to as “a tried-and-true formula that adapts to the mysteries of nature and the ever-changing world in which we live.” So far this fall, we’ve shared summaries of the Old Farmer’s Almanac outlook and FOX 5’s winter outlook. There are actually two competing almanacs: the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac and both have been published for more than 200 years. Below we take a look at the Farmers’ Almanac outlook for this upcoming winter.
The Farmers’ Almanac shared that the basis of their prediction method was developed by its founding editor according to correlations between celestial events and various meteorological conditions. Today this formula uses some of the original rules set forth back in 1818, but also accounts for fluctuations in the environment on Earth, as well as sunspots, the motion of the Moon, and other proprietary factors.
While both almanacs claim 80-85% accuracy, some sources say it may be closer to 50%. When it comes to these very general long term predictions for larger regions, it’s also difficult to decipher which specific places will get the predicted precipitation, which makes things more difficult when it comes to checks for accuracy.
According to the Farmers Almanac, the upcoming winter of 2024-25 is expected to be shaped by La Niña, a climate phenomenon characterized by cooler ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. “Taking into account the effect La Niña has on the weather, along with our long-standing formula, we anticipate the winter of 2024-25 will be wet and cold for most locations.”
The Almanac states that the Northeast (from DC to New England) can expect a stormy winter with increased precipitation and temperatures slightly above average. Snowfall will predominantly affect inland and mountainous areas, while coastal regions, particularly those along the I-95 corridor, will experience more sleet and rain.
They are issuing a “red flag” alert for the eastern United States from January 20-27, anticipating intense storm activity with frequent heavy precipitation and strong winds. Notable periods include January 20-23 and 24-27, which may bring significant snow, rain, sleet, and ice depending on location. The full extended forecast can be seen here.