The DC region is entering a stretch of active winter weather, with forecasters tracking both near-term temperature swings and the potential for snow later this week (likely over the weekend).
According to the National Weather Service, temperatures will be slightly warmer today but still below average for mid-January. An Arctic front is expected to move through later today, ushering in much colder air tonight that will persist into Tuesday. A warming trend is forecast through Thursday before another cold front arrives late Thursday, bringing colder temperatures back to the region for the end of the week.
Looking ahead to the weekend, FOX 5 meteorologist Mike Thomas says the larger weather pattern is showing several encouraging signs for winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic, a sentiment that NBC4’s Doug Kammerer agreed with. Thomas pointed to a strong supply of cold air driven by a ridge pulse in the Bering Sea and Arctic blocking, a setup that often precedes snow potential in the region.
Early guidance from the AIFS model shows a classic west-based negative NAO pattern along with a well-established 50/50 low, both of which help lock cold air in place along the East Coast. Thomas also highlighted a split flow pattern, with the southern branch leading the northern branch, a configuration that can support snow development when timed correctly.
At the mid-levels of the atmosphere, several signals favor snow, though Thomas noted a few details still need refinement. The positive PNA signal is somewhat weaker than ideal, and the trough position is slightly farther west than typically preferred for the DC area. He said those factors may be balanced by the strength of the blocking pattern and the 50/50 low.
At the surface, models depict a strong Arctic high pressure system north of New England, helping trap cold air across the Mid-Atlantic. Ideally, that high would be positioned a bit farther south, but Thomas stressed it is still early and trends over the coming days will be critical.
