MoCoSnow

There is now an “enhanced risk” for a Day 3 (Wednesday into Thursday) and Day 4 (Thursday into Friday) winter storm threat, according to the National Weather Service. Per the images seen below, the enhanced threat covers half of Montgomery County while the other half is under a “slight risk”.

MoCoSnow report from Monday morning: We’ve been watching the possibility of winter weather early on Thursday morning and there’s currently a possibility for a little ice in the early to mid-morning. Things have gone from possible snow to all rain to some ice, so there’s still a little time for this to get figured out before there’s any certainty behind what kind of event this will be.

We’ve been watching the possibility of winter weather early on Thursday morning and there’s currently a possibility for a little ice in the early to mid-morning. Things have gone from possible snow to all rain to some ice, so there’s still a little time for this to get figured out before there’s any certainty behind what kind of event this will be.

This morning the GFS (American model) shows the surface low a little further east than it was last night, which means we could see a period of ice or snow early on Thursday before everything switches over to rain. If the low stays closer to the coast, as it looked like it would until this morning, then it would likely be too warm for us to see much/any winter precipitation.

WJLA (ABC7) has released its winter outlook for the upcoming 2022-2024 season. Previously, we’ve reviewed Doug Kammerer and NBC4’s winter outlook, shared highlights from Mike Thomas and Fox 5’s winter weather outlook, and went over WUSA9’s snowy prediction. WJLA seems to be a bit of a mixture of all of them, with less than average snow predicted, but still plenty depending on where in MoCo you’re located.

Like every other outlook, WJLA discusses the La Niña weather pattern that we’ll have for the third winter in a row.  They tend to produces below-normal snowfall and above-average temperatures. The La Niña is expected to peak early and weaken as winter continues, according to their outlook. WJLA cuts to the chase and writes that “D.C. and surrounding areas are trending milder than normal for the season with less snowfall and potentially fewer storms.” As you can see in the map in our featured photo, the upper fourth of MoCo is in the 13″-20″ range while the rest of MoCo is in the 9″-15″ range (Rockville’s average snowfall is 21 inches).

WUSA9 released its winter outlook for the upcoming 2022-2023 season. Previously, we’ve reviewed Doug Kammerer and NBC4’s winter outlook and shared highlights from Mike Thomas and Fox 5’s winter weather outlook. All three have had some pretty significant differences, with WUSA9’s predicting the most snow of the three.

Following a review of last winter, WUSA goes into explaining a La Niña winter and the lack of snow that usually comes with it. After warning that “weak La Niñas” often come with low snow totals, WUSA9 goes rogue! “This year we are banking on two small to moderate snows and one big snow to bring our snowfall totals to near average or a bit above in some locations. Generally, we are predicting near-average to a bit above-average snowfall in the DMV. Here’s the breakdown. 

Per the National Weather Service: “It’s a cold rain for most today w/ snow & ice over the mountains. Snow: Dusting-2″ west of I-81 w/ 2-3″ possible along I-68 & elevations above 2,500 ft. A light glaze of ice is also possible on elevated surfaces. Watch for slick travel later this afternoon/evening.”

Temperatures will remain in the 40s overnight and reach 50° for most of MoCo and high temperatures in the 40s for the rest of the week with Saturday looking like the coldest day (high temps below 45°).

Coming off of a colder Sunday, after a stretch of warm days and relatively average temperature days, the week ahead is going to be the coldest we’ve seen since late winter/early spring with highs in the 40s for most of the week.

This morning will start off cold with temperatures in the 30s before climbing to the upper 40s by this afternoon. Tuesday will get to the mid 40s with a cold rain expected in the afternoon. Wednesday could start off with a cold rain and high temperatures forecasted around 50°. Thursday and Friday are both expected to be mostly sunny, but cold, with highs in the mid 40s.