MoCoSnow

The National Weather Service has upped its projected ice totals for Thursday morning in the map it released earlier this afternoon (seen above in the featured photo). A little more than 1/3 of MoCo is now projected to get .1-.25” of ice with the other 2/3 or so at .01-.1”

In the “FutureCast” seen below, courtesy of Fox 5’s Mike Thomas, the freezing rain enters our area around 1am and continues to fall until turning to rain at approximately 8/8:30am in parts of the county and for almost all of the county by 9am. This is one of those situations where areas like Bethesda and Silver Spring see mostly wet roads, while areas further north like Gaithersburg, Germantown, Clarksburg, and Damascus see more significant issues involving ice.

We are now under 48 hours away from potential winter weather on Thursday morning. As it looks now, there’s still the possibility of freezing rain on Thursday that could affect the morning commute. The image below, courtesy of ABC7’s Eileen Whelan, shows that most of MoCo could be impacted by ice in the morning with temperatures in Gaithersburg at 31° at 7am.

This seems to be the general consensus among local meteorologists, with NBC4’s Chuck Bell also sharing a hi-res forecast model (seen below) that has freezing rain still in our area at 8am.

We’re now within 60 hours of potential winter weather coming our way early Thursday morning. As it looks now, we could be in for some freezing rain early Thursday morning until about 8am or so when we would see a flip to rain from southern areas to northern areas.

If temperatures remain cold enough, early Thursday morning could be fairly slick with delays very possible for our area and even closures in areas north and west that may take longer to switch over. We’ll continue to monitor this one as it gets within 48 hours tomorrow morning and we have a better idea of where that ice/rain line will be. While it’s even possible to start with a bit of snow before changing to ice and then rain, it’s still possible for this to end up being an all-rain event.

There is now an “enhanced risk” for a Day 3 (Wednesday into Thursday) and Day 4 (Thursday into Friday) winter storm threat, according to the National Weather Service. Per the images seen below, the enhanced threat covers half of Montgomery County while the other half is under a “slight risk”.

MoCoSnow report from Monday morning: We’ve been watching the possibility of winter weather early on Thursday morning and there’s currently a possibility for a little ice in the early to mid-morning. Things have gone from possible snow to all rain to some ice, so there’s still a little time for this to get figured out before there’s any certainty behind what kind of event this will be.

We’ve been watching the possibility of winter weather early on Thursday morning and there’s currently a possibility for a little ice in the early to mid-morning. Things have gone from possible snow to all rain to some ice, so there’s still a little time for this to get figured out before there’s any certainty behind what kind of event this will be.

This morning the GFS (American model) shows the surface low a little further east than it was last night, which means we could see a period of ice or snow early on Thursday before everything switches over to rain. If the low stays closer to the coast, as it looked like it would until this morning, then it would likely be too warm for us to see much/any winter precipitation.

WJLA (ABC7) has released its winter outlook for the upcoming 2022-2024 season. Previously, we’ve reviewed Doug Kammerer and NBC4’s winter outlook, shared highlights from Mike Thomas and Fox 5’s winter weather outlook, and went over WUSA9’s snowy prediction. WJLA seems to be a bit of a mixture of all of them, with less than average snow predicted, but still plenty depending on where in MoCo you’re located.

Like every other outlook, WJLA discusses the La Niña weather pattern that we’ll have for the third winter in a row.  They tend to produces below-normal snowfall and above-average temperatures. The La Niña is expected to peak early and weaken as winter continues, according to their outlook. WJLA cuts to the chase and writes that “D.C. and surrounding areas are trending milder than normal for the season with less snowfall and potentially fewer storms.” As you can see in the map in our featured photo, the upper fourth of MoCo is in the 13″-20″ range while the rest of MoCo is in the 9″-15″ range (Rockville’s average snowfall is 21 inches).

WUSA9 released its winter outlook for the upcoming 2022-2023 season. Previously, we’ve reviewed Doug Kammerer and NBC4’s winter outlook and shared highlights from Mike Thomas and Fox 5’s winter weather outlook. All three have had some pretty significant differences, with WUSA9’s predicting the most snow of the three.

Following a review of last winter, WUSA goes into explaining a La Niña winter and the lack of snow that usually comes with it. After warning that “weak La Niñas” often come with low snow totals, WUSA9 goes rogue! “This year we are banking on two small to moderate snows and one big snow to bring our snowfall totals to near average or a bit above in some locations. Generally, we are predicting near-average to a bit above-average snowfall in the DMV. Here’s the breakdown. 

Per the National Weather Service: “It’s a cold rain for most today w/ snow & ice over the mountains. Snow: Dusting-2″ west of I-81 w/ 2-3″ possible along I-68 & elevations above 2,500 ft. A light glaze of ice is also possible on elevated surfaces. Watch for slick travel later this afternoon/evening.”

Temperatures will remain in the 40s overnight and reach 50° for most of MoCo and high temperatures in the 40s for the rest of the week with Saturday looking like the coldest day (high temps below 45°).