FOX 5 DC meteorologist Mike Thomas says the European weeklies are “certainly building the December excitement,” hinting at a potentially cold and snowy start to winter across the region.
Thomas cautioned that this year’s setup isn’t a “Modoki El Niño”, the variety that often brings heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic, so he’s not expecting identical impacts. Still, one particular historical comparison caught his attention: December 2009, which produced Washington D.C.’s snowiest December on record with more than 16 inches of snow, appears on the list of top analog years.
“These are the years most similar to what the models are currently projecting,” Thomas explained, noting that half of them were very cold (more than 5°F below average), and 90% featured measurable snow. Only 30% of those winters saw more than six inches of snow, but the presence of 2009 and 1989 on the list adds to the intrigue.
Here are the top analog years and their December snowfall totals:
- 1985: 0.7” (-5.3°F)
- 1989: 9.0” (-13.8°F)
- 2022: Trace (-1.6°F)
- 2007: 2.6” (+0.1°F)
- 1958: 0.9” (-8.8°F)
- 2000: 2.0” (-9.9°F)
- 1956: 0.5” (+2.4°F)
- 2009: 16.6” (-3.8°F)
- 1996: 0.2” (+1.3°F)
- 1963: 6.4” (-10.6°F)
While Thomas stopped short of predicting a repeat of 2009’s blockbuster storms, he acknowledged that the model blend “makes for some entertaining reading.” The FOX 5 Winter Outlook can be seen here.
