The National Weather Service expects Super Bowl Sunday snow, as a Winter Weather Advisory that covers all of MoCo has been issues.
The advisory calls for a widespread 1-2″ of snow with up to 4 inches locally. Below you’ll see the full advisory from the National Weather Service. We’ll have an update on the potential winter weather this evening.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY.
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with up to 4 inches locally.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia.
* WHEN…From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…The heaviest accumulations will be on non- paved surfaces.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Temperatures are expected to reach 60 again today with a mild, breezy and dry day expected. Temperatures will fall rapidly tonight, with overnight rain likely changing to snow for most of the area by early Sunday morning.
The latest map by the National Weather Service has all of MoCo in the 1-2″ range, with ~55% chance at over an inch of snow. This won’t be a crippling storm, but more likely just some flakes to set the mood for the Super Bowl. Temperatures will hover around freezing throughout the day tomorrow and will drop below freezing tomorrow night.
Since the ground is pretty warm from a few consecutive spring-like days, it would take a bit for roads to start to get bad, but we recommend using caution as roads could cave during heavier snowfall.
We’ll have an additional update later this evening or tonight as we get closer to the possible event.
Today will likely be the best day of our recent string of warmer days with highs potentially reaching the mid- 60s as we continue our mid-February taste of spring.
Tomorrow will also be warmer than average too, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s. There has been potential for winter weather late Saturday and Sunday that has gone back and forth between giving us a few inches of snow and not bringing much our way in recent days.
Different models are still showing different solutions with the possibility of little to no snow or a general 1-3 inches. The latest maps from the National Weather Service (seen below) show less than an inch widespread, but the “reasonable worst case” map shows 2-2.5 inches.
We’ll have an update after the afternoon model runs.
The ‘Special Weather Statement’ from earlier today has been update to no longer include C/SE MoCo. It now covers areas as close as Prince George’s County with potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Monday morning commute.
Per the National Weather Service for ‘Special Weather Statement’ areas (shown in featured photo):
“A period of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Monday morning across the Baltimore Metropolitan area, northeast Maryland, and for central and southern Maryland east of Interstate 95, with a light glaze possible on area roads.
If this threat does materialize during the Monday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Monday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options.”
A ‘Hazardous Weather Outlook’ has been released that does include C/SE MoCo, and that states the following:
“Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is possible late tonight for central and southern Maryland east of Interstate 95 as well as northeastern Maryland including the Baltimore Metropolitan area.”
Pencil Prediction: 1 Pencil
The National Weather Service has released a ‘Special Weather Statement’ for the area, which includes Central/SE Montgomery County. The full statement can be seen below:
“There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Monday morning commute.
A period of freezing drizzle is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Monday morning across the Baltimore / Washington metro areas, primarily east of Interstate 95, with a light glaze possible on area roads.
If this threat does materialize during the Monday morning rush- hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays.
If commuting Monday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions.
Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options.”
The Forecaster’s Discussion from the National Weather Service, just before the statement was released:
The soundings on guidance suggest this will be mostly low-level moisture, probably too low for snow given the temps in the profile, but with surface temps near or below freezing late tonight into early Monday, this opens up the possibility of some light freezing rain or drizzle.
Confidence is not at all high, and its possible that the dry air presently over the area ends up eating up most or all of this precip, or that temps manage to moderate enough so that what falls manages to just be liquid, but since any freezing rain or drizzle can be very hazardous, will be issuing a commuter hazard statement for this potential shortly.
Below you’ll see snow totals from across the county courtesy of the National Weather Service.
Note: Not all areas in MoCo area included (CoCoRaHS = a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers)
Colesville 2 W 1.1 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Colesville 1.0 832 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Rossmoor 1 ESE 0.9 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Silver Spring 6 NNE 0.9 430 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Rockville 3 E 0.8 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Norbeck 1 ESE 0.8 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Aspen Hill 1 SW 0.7 915 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Bethesda 2 WNW 0.7 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS White Oak 1 N 0.7 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Potomac 1 NNW 0.6 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Damascus 3 SSW 0.6 700 AM 1/29 Co-Op Observer Olney 1 ENE 0.6 630 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Gaithersburg 3 NE 0.5 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Poolesville SE 0.5 800 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Montgomery Village 1 0.5 630 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Damascus 1 S 0.5 703 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Takoma Park 1 NNW 0.5 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Clarksburg 1 SSE 0.4 1200 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Germantown 5 NNE 0.4 600 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS North Potomac 4 N 0.4 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS Laytonsville 2 WNW 0.3 900 AM 1/29 Trained Spotter Potomac 3 NE 0.3 700 AM 1/29 CoCoRaHS
Montgomery County Public Schools has released a survey about the possibility of virtual learning on days when schools are closed due to inclement weather. The survey must be completed by Monday, January 31 at noon.
Per the Maryland State Department of Education, all school systems are required to have at least 180 instructional days per year. With inclement weather, multiple school system closures may require adjustments to the school year calendar (e.g., extending the year, using other identified days). MCPS is planning for options that allow for virtual instruction on inclement weather closure days. While virtual instruction cannot replace time in the classroom, MCPS believes it is essential to continue to provide access to learning opportunities. Your feedback on this intent will help inform the district’s implementation plan.
The survey can be accessed here.
Per MCPS:
Dear MCPS Families,
MCPS is planning for the possibility of virtual learning on days when schools are closed due to inclement weather. It is important that students experience as little learning disruption as possible, so we are asking for your input to inform our initial planning. Please complete this survey and share your thoughts by 12 p.m. on Monday, Jan. 31. See the survey in:
English | Spanish | Chinese | French | Portuguese | Korean | Vietnamese | Amharic
Montgomery County Public Schools
A winter weather advisory is in now in effect for all of MoCo until 4am Saturday morning for C/SE MoCo and until 1am for NW MoCo.
MCPS UPDATE: MCPS Schools Close on Time; After-School and Evening Activities Canceled, Today, Jan. 28. Montgomery County Public Schools will close at the regularly scheduled time today. All after-school and evening school and community activities in school buildings are canceled. Childcare programs in school buildings may remain open as scheduled.
Per the National Weather Service:
* WHAT…Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, northern and central Virginia, and the central Shenandoah Valley of Virginia.
* WHEN…Until 4 AM EST Saturday. The steadiest snow is expected late this afternoon through this evening.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Temperatures will fall below freezing for most areas during the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
The latest map shows a slight increase in projected snow totals with about 1/3 of the county now in the 2-3″ range and 1/3 in the 1-2′ range.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for SE Montgomery County from 4pm today until 4am tomorrow.
Per the National Weather Service:
* WHAT…Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE…The District of Columbia, and portions of central
Maryland and central and northern Virginia.
* WHEN…From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Highs today will reach the mid to upper 30s. While we may see some scattered showers throughout the day (nothing major), snow isn’t expected to start until about 4 or 5pm. Initially this will likely only provide a dusting on the grass until the sun goes down and that’s when road conditions could deteriorate.
The National Weather Service map from early this morning has MoCo in the 1-2” range for this storm, so not too much is expected.
As seen in the tweet below by Fox 5’s Mike Thomas, a general 1-3 is expected (like the advisory states), but there are still “boom” and “bust” possibilities.
How much snow? Minor adjustments to yesterday's map, but generally holding steady with risk of 1-3" around DC. Not a major snow, but things could get slick this evening. For "boom" potential, this morning's NAM brought 6" to DC, while a "bust" would be the HRRR's Trace-2" totals. pic.twitter.com/7OWOQfB1Pp
— Mike Thomas (@MikeTFox5) January 28, 2022
Prince George’s County, which is expecting more snow than us, announced last night that schools will be closing early today due to the weather coming this afternoon.
While it’s possible for us, it’s not likely as heavier snow that would stick to the roads wouldn’t fall until later this evening. There’s a better chance of after school activities being canceled.
Either way, if snow is falling we recommend to use extra caution while driving.
The most recent maps from the National Weather Service shows quite a difference from their “reasonable worst case scenario” to the “low end amount” showing just how much uncertainty there is with this storm.
As you can see above, most of MoCo is in the 1-2 inch range , but the “reasonable worst case scenario” has MoCo at about 5.5-10 inches while the “low end amount” has us getting no snow at all. That’s a range of 0 to 10 inches!
With so much uncertainty, timing beyond “Friday into Saturday” will become a bit clearer tomorrow.
The forecaster’s discussion shows that the NWS is encouraging people to focus on the high and low end amounts:
The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the broader “low-end” and “high-end” potential snowfall amounts at this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability is likely in the “expected” snowfall amounts as finer scale details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days.
The National Weather Service has released its first maps regarding potential snowfall this Friday into Saturday. (At approximately 4:30am and updated at 9:30am).
The expected snowfall map MoCo shows 2-3 inches for almost all of MoCo with just a few areas at 3-4 inches:
The “reasonable worst case scenario” map shows an area-wide 6 inches for MoCo.
The “low end amount” shows no snow.
So we’re supposed to get 0-6 inches? You can look at it that way…or you can look at it as different scenarios that could occur, some more likely than others, according to the information available at the moment.
I understand the frustration, but that’s just what it is, and here’s why:
The Euro, which has a big shift west yesterday moved things east just a bit. It’s now showing about 2-4 for us. The GFS isn’t bringing as much, showing about 1-3 inches for our area. Today’s runs, which usually are the last to show any major shifts, are very important in giving a better idea of what could happen.
We’ll continue to monitor and provide an update later this evening.
